Krieg im 21. Jahrhundert

[Quintus Fabius]

Und nochmal aus dem gleichen Hause: spezifisch zur Bedeutung nicht-militärischer Güter und Dual-Use Technologie welche den nächsten Krieg entscheiden könnten noch bevor er anfängt:

https://mwi.usma.edu/teaching-technology...-strategy/

Semiconductors play a critical role in great power competition. Both our commercial and military systems are dependent on semiconductors. China spends more on semiconductor imports than it does on oil. We framed the advances in technology as part of the fourth industrial revolution. We then reminded the students of the role DoD and the intelligence community played at Stanford, turning it into an outward-facing university, which kickstarted technology entrepreneurship here in Silicon Valley.

Next we discussed dual-use technology. For the first time in seventy-five years, federal labs and our prime contractors are no longer leading innovation in many critical technologies, including AI, machine learning, autonomy, biotech, commercial access to space, and others. Rapid advances in these areas are now happening via commercial firms—many in China. This is a radical change in where advanced technology comes from. In the United States, the government is painfully learning how to reorient its requirements and acquisition process to buy these commercial, off-the-shelf technologies. (Products that are sold commercially and to DoD are called “dual-use.”)

We then began a deep dive into semiconductors by drawing the map of the semiconductor industry. Five companies provide the majority of the wafer fabrication equipment needed to make chips. TSMC is the leading fabricator for manufacturing logic chips. Of the twenty-nine new fabricators starting construction in 2021–22, over half are in China and Taiwan.

We took the class through the TSMC case study and mapped out the roles and interests of TSMC, China, Intel, and the United States. We discussed China’s drive for semiconductor independence, US export controls on Huawei (why they’re in place and their consequences), the various constituencies of a US semiconductor policy (Commerce Department, DoD, US chip makers, US semi equipment suppliers, etc.), and whether TSMC’s success makes Taiwan more or less secure given China’s goals of reunification with Taiwan.

Class Four Lessons Learned

Semiconductors are the oil of the twenty-first century. All economies run on them.

Semiconductors are China’s biggest imports.

China’s roadmap for building an indigenous semiconductor industry and accelerating chip manufacturing is the National Integrated Circuit Plan.

The goal is to meet its local chip demand by 2030.

The United States is dependent on TSMC, located in Taiwan, for its most advanced logic chips.

China claims Taiwan is a province of China.

TSMC will build a fabricator in Arizona, but it will represent only 2 percent of its capacity.