Sahel Zone

[Quintus Fabius]

https://warontherocks.com/2022/02/why-fr...d-in-mali/

Why France Failed in Mali

Unfortunately for Paris and Bamako alike, relations seem to have reached a point of no return between the current authorities. The junta’s clear desire to stay in power as long as possible fundamentally conflicts with French and broader regional pressure for a rapid transition to a civilian and constitutional political order. This contradiction may be irresolvable, particularly in the context of the toxic and escalating tensions between the two sides.

Nevertheless, the slow pace of France’s planned withdrawal — over four to six months — may leave open the possibility of a residual French presence if the junta changes its policies or loses power. The main question now is whether the shift in France’s strategy to regional containment can succeed. France’s new approach rests in part on increased cooperation with coastal West African states such as Côte d’Ivoire, Togo, and Benin to reinforce their capacities to resist a growing jihadist threat on their northern frontiers.

Regardless of the size and scope of France’s future military presence in these states, the success or failure of the French strategy depends entirely on those states investing considerable resources into their marginalized northern peripheries. It also requires clear efforts by local governments to end the stigmatization of Peuls or other Muslim communities and rein in potential security force abuses. Unfortunately, in regions where state authority is sometimes perceived as a threat, these may remain pious hopes.