Russland vs. Ukraine

[Quintus Fabius]

Auch die Ukrainer geraten zunehmend außer Atem:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/202...-shortage/

Ukraine short of skilled troops and munitions as losses, pessimism grow

The quality of Ukraine’s military force, once considered a substantial advantage over Russia, has been degraded by a year of casualties that have taken many of the most experienced fighters off the battlefield, leading some Ukrainian officials to question Kyiv’s readiness to mount a much-anticipated spring offensive.

U.S. and European officials have estimated that as many as 120,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or wounded since the start of Russia’s invasion early last year.

Statistics aside, an influx of inexperienced draftees, brought in to plug the losses, has changed the profile of the Ukrainian force, which is also suffering from basic shortages of ammunition, including artillery shells and mortar bombs, according to military personnel in the field.

Laut mehreren verschiedenen Quellen sind die meisten noch vor dem Krieg westlich ausgebildeten unteren und mittleren Offiziere inzwischen gefallen, ebenso zu viele erfahrene Unteroffiziere.

“The most valuable thing in war is combat experience,” said a battalion commander in the 46th Air Assault Brigade, who is being identified only by his call sign, Kupol, in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol. “A soldier who has survived six months of combat and a soldier who came from a firing range are two different soldiers. It’s heaven and earth.”

“And there are only a few soldiers with combat experience,” Kupol added. “Unfortunately, they are all already dead or wounded.”

Die russische Armee wiederum ist explizit so konzipiert, mit möglichst schlechtem Menschenmaterial trotzdem kämpfen zu können. Das reicht von den Systemen über die Doktrin bis hinunter zur Frage wie Infanteriegruppen der Russen agieren. Alles ist auf das schlechtesmögliche Können hin ausgerichtet. Dies erweist sich angesichts der Verluste zunehmend als ein Vorteil der Russen.

The situation on the battlefield now may not reflect a full picture of Ukraine’s forces, because Kyiv is training troops for the coming counteroffensive separately and deliberately holding them back from current fighting, including the defense of Bakhmut, a U.S. official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to be candid.

Laut anderen Quellen aber sind viele der neu aufgestellten Brigaden welche bisher noch nicht zum Einsatz gekommen sind nicht ausreichend ausgerüstet und teilweise auch nicht ausreichend ausgebildet. Trotz anderslautender Bezeichnungen und Absichten handele es sich oft nur um gering befähigte Infanterie-Brigaden.

Der Grund dafür sind die unzureichenden Waffenlieferungen des Westens. Diese wirken sich aber auch sonst zunehmend auf die Kampffähigkeit der ukrainischen Streitkräfte aus:

One senior Ukrainian government official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to be candid, called the number of tanks promised by the West a “symbolic” amount. Others privately voiced pessimism that promised supplies would even reach the battlefield in time.

“If you have more resources, you more actively attack,” the senior official said. “If you have fewer resources, you defend more. We’re going to defend. That’s why if you ask me personally, I don’t believe in a big counteroffensive for us. I’d like to believe in it, but I’m looking at the resources and asking, ‘With what?’

“We don’t have the people or weapons,” the senior official added. “And you know the ratio: When you’re on the offensive, you lose twice or three times as many people. We can’t afford to lose that many people.”

Such analysis is far less optimistic than the public statements by Ukraine’s political and military leadership.

On the front lines ...... the mood is dark.

Kupol, who consented to having his photograph taken and said he understood he could face personal blowback for giving a frank assessment, described going to battle with newly drafted soldiers who had never thrown a grenade, who readily abandoned their positions under fire and who lacked confidence in handling firearms.

After a year of war, Kupol, a lieutenant colonel, said his battalion is unrecognizable. Of about 500 soldiers, roughly 100 were killed in action and another 400 wounded, leading to complete turnover. Kupol said he was the sole military professional in the battalion, and he described the struggle of leading a unit composed entirely of inexperienced troops.

“I get 100 new soldiers,” Kupol said. “They don’t give me any time to prepare them. They say, ‘Take them into the battle.’ They just drop everything and run. That’s it. Do you understand why? Because the soldier doesn’t shoot. I ask him why, and he says, ‘I’m afraid of the sound of the shot.’ And for some reason, he has never thrown a grenade. … We need NATO instructors in all our training centers, and our instructors need to be sent over there into the trenches. Because they failed in their task.”

Nicht nur das Material, auch die Ausbildungsbemühungen des Westens sind heillos unzureichend.

He described severe ammunition shortages, including a lack of simple mortar bombs and grenades for U.S.-made MK 19s.

Ukraine has also faced an acute shortage of artillery shells, which Washington and its allies have scrambled to address, with discussions about how to shore up Ukrainian stocks dominating daily meetings on the war at the White House National Security Council. Washington’s efforts have kept Ukraine fighting, but use rates are very high.

“You’re on the front line,” Kupol said. “They’re coming toward you, and there’s nothing to shoot with.”

Kupol said Kyiv needed to focus on better preparing new troops in a systematic way. “It’s like all we do is give interviews and tell people that we’ve already won, just a little bit further away, two weeks, and we’ll win,” he said.

Dmytro, a Ukrainian soldier whom The Post is identifying only by first name for security reasons, described many of the same conditions. Some of the less-experienced troops serving at his position with the 36th Marine Brigade in the Donetsk region “are afraid to leave the trenches,” he said. Shelling is so intense at times, he said, that one soldier will have a panic attack, then “others catch it.”

Der Artilleriehagel der Russen ist zwar nicht mehr so bizarr hoch wie im Sommer 22, aber immer noch so extrem hoch, dass die Durchhaltefähigkeit der Ukrainer in einem derartigen Geschehen geradezu herausragend ist. Selbst zu viele westliche Soldaten können sich in Wahrheit nicht vorstellen, was so ein Artilleriebeschuss vor allem psychologisch anrichtet. Der bricht ganze Einheiten komplett, noch lange bevor sie faktisch vernichtet sind. Die wirklich herausragende Durchhaltefähigkeit der Ukrainer im russischen Artilleriefeuer hätten unsere Streitkräfte im Westen TM so gesichert nicht, und sie ist wirklich bemerkenswert. Das ist wahres Heldentum!

The first time he saw fellow soldiers very shaken, Dmytro said, he tried to talk them through the reality of the risks. The next time, he said, they “just ran from the position.”

Was übrigens je nach den Umständen nicht mal immer die schlechteste Entscheidung ist.

“The question is whether Ukraine’s relative advantage is sufficient to attain their objectives, and whether those advantages can be sustained,” said Michael Kofman, a military analyst at Virginia-based CNA. “That depends not just on them, but also on the West.”

Despite reports of untrained mobilized Russian fighters being thrown into battle, Syrsky said those now arriving are well-prepared. “We have to live and fight in these realities,” he said. “Of course, it’s problematic for us. … It forces us to be more precise in our firing, more detailed in our reconnaissance, more careful in choosing our positions and more detailed in organizing the interaction between the units. There is no other way.”

Anfangs warfen die Russen ein paar Regimenter und Brigaden der Reserve an die Front um die Ukrainer zu stoppen. Unausgebildet, schlecht ausgerüstet, demotiviert, aber sie dienten auch nur dazu die Front zum stehen zu bringen. Sie dienten aber natürlich auch noch einem zweiten wesentlichen Zweck: die Ausbildung der russischen Einheiten der Reserve dadurch zu ermöglichen. Diese ausgebildeten Einheiten treffen nun zusehends an der Front ein. Sie sind zwar auch schlecht ausgerüstet, aber vom Können her zunehmend besser. Während umgekehrt das Können bei den Ukrainern degradiert.

Zu Bakhmut:

The United States has been advising Ukraine to retreat from the city since at least January, the U.S. official said.

Ziemlich genau zur gleichen Zeit schrieb ich ebenfalls dass man Bakhmut räumen müsse und im Februar eigentlich ebenfalls durchgehend. Nun können sie es vielleicht gar nicht mehr, denn es ist etwas komplett anderes ein wenig Nachschub nach vorne zu bringen, oder einen kompletten Großkampfverband nach hinten wegzuführen und dort in vorbereiteten Stellungen von anderen Verbänden aufnehmen zu lassen. Es stellt sich auch die Frage, ob die Ukrainer überhaupt noch das Können dazu haben ?!

Ukraine has lost many of its junior officers who received U.S. training over the past nine years, eroding a corps of leaders who helped distinguish the Ukrainians from their Russian enemies at the start of the invasion, the Ukrainian official said. Now, the official said, those forces must be replaced. “A lot of them are killed,” the official said.

Auch die Moral an der Heimatfront zeigt wachsende Schwächen, wie sich vor allem aus den Maßnahmen der ukrainischen Regierung heraus zeigt:

At the start of the invasion, Ukrainians rushed to volunteer for military duty, but now men across the country who did not sign up have begun to fear being handed draft slips on the street. Ukraine’s internal security service recently shut down Telegram accounts that were helping Ukrainians avoid locations where authorities were distributing summonses.