Russland vs. Ukraine

[Quintus Fabius]

Nach langer gesundheitsbedinger Pause:

JOMINI

Gesamtkarte:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/16238...57/photo/1

1/ Ukraine TVD, 1-7 FEB 23. The first week of February saw the Russian Winter Offensive move into full swing as major pushes were made in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar. The Russians made some gains but Ukrainian defenses held.

2/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you).

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/16238...73/photo/1

Karte Bereich Luhansk:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/16238...89/photo/1

3/ Luhansk OD. Svatove remains a critical pivot of operations for both sides. Action over the past week did not see major changes to the line of contact north of Novovodyane. To the south the Russians launched a sustained offensive out of Kreminna towards Yampolivka.

Karte Kremina:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/16238...32/photo/1

4/ Kreminna AO. Elements of the VDV, SVRF, and BARS battalions advanced deep into the Serebryanka forestry, to within 2km of Yampolivka, and into Makilvka. This offensive threatens to destabilize the ZSU line and force a withdrawal west of the Zherebets River.

5/ Although the offensive push from Kreminna is well resourced, Russian Ground Forces are having a tough time breaking through Ukrainian defenses. Steady progress is being made. The next week will determine how long the Russian can keep this pace.

Dort erfolgte auch der bereits erwähnte Abschuss des BMPT:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/16236...71/photo/1

Karte Bereich Donezk:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/16238...08/photo/1

6/ Donetsk OD. The main effort of the current Russian offensive remains focused on Bakhmut. The scale, focus, and direction of Russian assaults suggest an attempt to achieve control of Donetsk's principal political, economic, and cultural heartland by winter's end.

Karte Bakhmut:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/16238...57/photo/1

7/ Bakhmut AO. Bakhmut remains the most critical Objective Point of Maneuver in the Ukrainian TVD. It is unclear how long Ukrainian forces can continue to hold here. Wagner PMC, VDV, and SVRF units continue to make daily gains along multiple axes.

Rein persönlich finde ich es erstaunlich, dass die Ukrainer Bakhmut immer noch halten bzw. halten können. Angesichts der sich dort stauenden konventionellen Armeeeinheiten auf Seiten der Russen rechne ich zeitnah mit einem Zusammenbruch der ukrainischen Verteidigung dort.

8/ Fighting in Bakhmut is fierce, Ukrainian units hold on to every inch of territory as long as possible until conditions force a withdrawal. Likewise the Russians are willing to pay a high cost for success. Exshaution may over come both sides soon.

Meiner Meinung nach ist es ein Fehler hier derart steif das Gelände zu halten, auch wenn andere das naturgemäß anders sehen. Die ukrainische Verteidigung ist meiner Meinung nach zu sehr auf das Halten von Gelände fixiert. Das ist meiner Auffassung nach falsch von der untersten taktischen Ebene bis hinauf auf die politisch-strategische Ebene. Haltebefehle zu befolgen nützt der Ukraine weniger als wenn man hier Gelände räumen würde, und zwar in Bezug auf alles.

Karte vom Bereich Zaporizhzhia:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/16238...56/photo/1

9/ Zaporizhzhia OD. The SVRF will continue its efforts to capture Orkhiv and Vuhledar at whatever cost is required. Russia's ability to shift the strategic front north is vital to the sustainability of the Crimea Land Corridor.

Wie war das nochmal mit der von den meisten westlichen Experten seit vielen Wochen erwarteten ukrainischen Großoffensive in Richtung Melitopol ?

Karte Vulhedar:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/16238...22/photo/1

10/ Vuhledar AO. Since 24 JAN the Russians have committed no less than 4x maneuver brigades supported by attack aviation and massed artillery in an attempt to seize Vuhledar. These assaults have been defeated, causing substantial losses in Russian personnel & equipment.

11/ This high rate of loss is not sustainable for the Russians, yet they will likely continue to feed troops and equipment in new attacks to gain control of this decisive geographic point. Anticipate Wagner PMC & newly raise VDV units to be employed here.

Wagner erhält aktuell keine neuen Gefangenen mehr und die eigentlichen Söldner der Kerntruppe werden nicht so eingesetzt. Entsprechend wird Wagner zunehmend nicht mehr so präsent sein.

Karte Kherson:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/16238...85/photo/1

12/ Kherson OD. Russian forces will continue an active defense in along the Dnipro River with a focus on establishing control over the Dnipro Delta while deploying reinforcements into fortified defensive positions along the M-17 and P-47 Highways.

13/ Operational Forecast - Weather. Temperatures will remain at or below freezing over the next 10 days, with cloud cover affecting UAV recon and attack aviation support. Snow mid-week will likely slow ground movement. Wind direction and speed with favor Ukrainian artillery.

Der Schlamm kommt damit früher als erwartet, was wiederum die Verteidiger begünstigt. Hatten wir ja schon ausführlich, es wäre Wahnsinn von Seiten der Russen ausgerechnet in den Schlamm hinein anzugreifen. Aber es gibt immer mehr Hinweise dass sie dies (schon wieder) tatsächlich so tun wollen.

14/ This is another short update focused on ground actions of last week as I still get back into the rhythm of posting. I want to thank everyone for their continued support of these efforts to report on events in Ukraine. I look forward to bringing you all deeper content.