Russland vs. Ukraine

[Quintus Fabius]

Noch eine ausgewogenere Darstellung zur Frage der russischen Fähigkeiten:

https://twitter.com/MichaelShurkin/statu...2451485696

1. The Russian military's shabby performance should not be taken as proof that Europe and the US need not worry about Russia, or that Finland and Sweden need not question their "neutrality." Why not?

2. First, Russia, for all its operational failings, retains the capacity to wreak extraordinary amounts of damage and pain upon its neighbors. It could still flatten Kyiv, if it wanted to, and that's w/o resorting to nukes. So,

3. Finland for example would cut the Russian army to pieces, but still would have to endure extraordinary hardship and horror.

4. Second, NATO more generally would also cut the Russians to pieces, until day 3, when NATO armies run out of ammunition. Russia can still prevail by playing "rope a dope," i.e. absorbing destruction while staying in the fight. That was more or less Russian strategy in WW2.

5. Third, Russians are more than capable of learning and improving. There's zero reason to assume that the next time Russia invades a country, it will do so with the same level of ineptitude. Russians ARE NOT stupid.

6. Fourth, and most importantly: The Russian invasion proves (as if it wasn't already clear) Putin's willingness to eschew int'l norms and use military force in a war of aggression. Meaning...

7....that whatever we may think of how well anyone's army might do against Russia, the point is that another war against one of Russia's neighbors is not implausible. It's a real possibility for which those neighbors and their allies must prepare.

All of which opens up the possibility that the Russian army, at this very moment, is at maximum weakness. It will only grow stronger from this point. Therefore, an early, unstable peace isn't a solution, but waiting until the chickens come home to roost again.

Man kann nur ganz erheblich davor warnen, aufgrund des Geschehens in der Ukraine jetzt die Russen einfach abzuschreiben und zu erklären sie seien halt im weiteren keine Gefahr mehr. Exakt das Gegenteil ist der Fall! Erst durch diesen Krieg werden sie eine ernsthafte Gefahr werden.