Russland vs. Ukraine

[Quintus Fabius]

JOMINI:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1522989565631295489

Gesamtkarte:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15229...89/photo/1

1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 67-72. The past 6 days has seen Ukrainian forces execute a limited counteroffensive north & northeast of Kharkiv that has produced significant results. Russian forces continue to struggle to gain ground from Izium to Popasna.

2/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for east Ukraine shows temps (16-24 C) will continue to slowly dry out areas with extensive mud, slightly improving offroad movement. However, mud still restricts movement to roads. Rain & cloud cover slightly degrades air & UAV operations.

Karte Kharkiv:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15229...09/photo/1

3/ Kharkiv OD. Ukraine’s limited counteroffensive of 02-05 May north & NE of Kharkiv threatens to push Russian forces back across the border into Belgorod. Russian forces in the Kharkiv OD are to spread out and weak to reverse recent Ukrainian gains.

Die Ukrainer haben zudem die russischen Kräfte dort de facto in zwei Teile zerschnitten, welche sich aufgrund zerstörter Brücken / Infrastruktur nicht mehr gegeneitig unterstützen können.

4/ Russia cannot afford another major defeat and will likely have to repurpose reinforcements designated to the Main Effort along the Siverskyi Donets Line between Izium & Popasna or pull units from that direction to stabilize defensives in the Kharkiv OD.

Fragwürdig. Warum sollte sich Russland hier keine "Niederlage" leisten können?! Man könnte auch bewusst hier über die Grenze zurückfallen lassen und nachdrängende ukrainische Einheiten als Angriff auf das Gebiet der RF bezeichnen und dies dann für weiterreichende Schritte nutzen etc. Das wäre noch wesentlich bequemer und leichter als die "Volksrepubliken" in die RF aufzunehmen und so den Krieg zu begründen.

Karte Severodonetsk-Donetsk:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15229...77/photo/1

5/ Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. Russian forces continue to struggle to achieve a general breakthrough along the Siverskyi Donets Line between Izium and Popasna. Along the Izium Axis Russian forces are stalled, unable to gain ground against Ukrainian hasty defensive positions.

6/ Russian command posts remain vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes. Russian C2 nodes are not nimble, lack proper concealment, and struggle to mask their electronic signature. Ukraine targets Russian C2 nodes with great effect, crippling their ability to exercise command of forces.

Die USA leisten hier höchstwahrscheinlich entscheidende Hilfe.

Karte Zaporizhzhia OD:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15229...12/photo/1

7/ Zaporizhzhia OD. Russian forces are focusing artillery and air strikes in support of limited assaults on Orikhiv, Huilaipole, and Velyka Novosilka. The Ukrainian General Staff estimates the main Russia objective in the Zaporizhzhia OD is Orikhiv.

8/ Orikhiv sits at the crossroads of several major roads and is a vital point of communication for an advance on Zaporizhzhia. It is likely that units still refiting and reorganizing from the Siege of Mariupol may be committed here in the coming days.

9/ Azovstal (Mariupol). On 03 May Russian forces resumed their assault on the Azovstal Metallurgical Zone. Intense air and artillery strikes supported ground assaults which made minimal gains resulting in Russian troops entering the Azovstal complex for the first time.

Es wird von vielen nicht verstanden, dass das nicht EINE Bunkeranlage ist, sondern mehrere voneinander getrennte und dass vor allem die vielen Tunnel und Verbindungsschächte hier das Problem für die Russen sind.


10/ Azovstal still stands. Given the reduced number of Russian troops available for operations against the Azovstal Complex, Russian forces will continue to rely on siege tactics and massed air and artillery strikes to reduce Ukrainian resistance.

Karte Kherson:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15229...42/photo/1

11/ Odesa-Kherson OD. There has been little activity in the Kherson-Odesa OD. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Russian forces continue to reinforce forward positions for a likely resumption of offensive operations to secure the northern and NW Kherson Oblast borders.

12/ It is assessed Russian occupation authorities will move forward with an illegitimate referendum to create the KPR. Ukrainian intelligence surmises false-flag incidents in Transnistria are intended to fix Ukrainian forces in Odesa to prevent their support to other operations.

13/ Aerospace Assessment. VKS air sorties remain steady at 300 in a 24-hour period. The focus of these sorties is on the interdiction of western aid supplies moving from west Ukraine to the front lines. These strikes have largely been ineffective.

Beispielsweise konzentriert man sich darauf die Stromversorgung der Eisenbahntrassen zu zerstören, aber die Ukrainer haben viele Diesel-Loks etc

14/ Battle Damage Assessment. Russian forces continue to sustain heavy losses against Ukrainian defenses along the Siverskyi Donets Line & Severodonetsk Salient. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 4x BTGs have been withdrawn from the Izium Axis

15/ Ukrainian TV, Day 67-72. Russia continues to lose ground in the information & economic sphere. Russia is attempting to find work arounds to western sanctions to replace critical military components. Western nations work to accelerate aid to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15229...55/photo/1

16/ InfoWar. The Kremlin continues its crackdown of domestic opposition to its war effort while state-media claims the war in Ukraine is a NATO proxy-war against Russia. This narrative is meant to play into the possibility of a 9 May declaration of war and/or full mobilization.

17/ Information Advantage. Ukraine is taking full advantage of recent Russian diplomatic gaffs to drive a wedge between Russia and countries that so far have remained neutral (specifically Israel) to reconsider their position and support Ukraine.

18/ The Ukrainian government continues to dominate the cyber sphere, recently launching an online funding effort to support Ukrainian resistance.

19/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees total 7.78+ million with 6+ million in countries bordering Ukraine, another 1.78+ throughout Europe, and 7.5+ million internally displaced people throughout Ukraine (1.4+ million in eastern & 228K in southern Ukraine).

20/ Despite efforts to evacuate civilians from the Azovstal, Russia continues to violate ceasefire agreements to allow organized evacuations by attacking relief convoys attempting to evacuate civilians & the wounded along approved humanitarian corridors.

21/ Overall Assessment. As surmised in my 03 May thread of the likelihood of a Russian breakthrough along the Siverskyi Donets Line, Russian forces are likely heading toward tactical success but a strategic defeat.

Gesamtkarte Osten:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15217...29/photo/1

22/ Likewise, as surmised in my 14 April thread, Ukraine is in the process of a significant localized counteroffensive in the Kharkiv area that has the high likelihood of creating a serious strategic dilemma for the Russian General Staff.