19.04.2022, 11:33
Zitat:Russland hat nach ukrainischen Angaben seine Großoffensive auf die Ostukraine begonnen.
Habe ich gestern wenigstens mal mit einer Annahme recht behalten, so oft wie ich mich jetzt schon in diesem Krieg geirrt habe.
JOMINI
Zitat:Gesamtkarte Tag 54:
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15162...16/photo/1
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 52-54: The past 72 hrs. have seen Russian forces reduce Ukrainian defenses in Mariupol to the Azovstal area. Ukrainian forces around Kharkiv launch several successful counterattacks while Russia builds forces near Izium.
Die Gegenangriffe bei Kharkiv sind interessant, weil die Ukrainer dort Dämme unter Kontrolle gebracht haben und damit das Land fluten können. Zudem bedroht dass wieder einmal relevante russische Nachschublinien.
2/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees top 6.67 million, with over 6.6 million IDPs throughout Ukraine. 27 European countries are hosting Ukrainian Refugees, with many eastern European nations taking the weight of this humanitarian crisis.
3/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for most of the Donbas-Kherson TVD will comprise of increased cloud cover & rainstorms, wind speed will generally average at 8 mph. Air & artillery strikes will remain degraded, while heavy rain continues to restrict ground movement.
Karte Kharkiv:
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15162...65/photo/1
4/ Kharkiv OD. Ukraine appears to be reinforcing the Kharkiv OD, the 93rd Mech Brigade is reportedly operating in NW Kharkiv now. Successful counterattacks SE of Chuhuiv may be expanded in the coming days to threaten Russian GLOCs to the east.
Detailkarte:
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15162...49/photo/1
5/ As assessed late last week, the Kharkiv OD may potentially become 1 of 2 battle zones for the Ukrainian military. A weighted counteroffensive in this area will sever Russian GLOCs running from Belgorod & Valuyki to the Izium area.
Karte Severodonetsk:
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15162...85/photo/1
6/ Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. Russian forces have increased offensive activity in Severodonetsk Salient over the past 24 hours. Although these attacks have not made significant gains they could be the start of the anticipated general Donbas offensive.
7/ Ukrainian and western intelligence statements claim Russia has massed at least 22 Battalion Tactical Groups in the Izium area. Even with severely damaged units, a force of this size could make a meaningful breakthrough if properly employed to make & exploit one.
Wird vermutlich heute massiv in dieser Stoßrichtung losgehen.
Karte Zaporizhzhia:
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15162...93/photo/1
8/ Zaporizhzhia OD. Russian activity in the in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast remains focused on the capture of Mariupol. Limited attacks and counterattacks by Russian and Ukrainian forces continue between the line running from Vasylivka to Volnovakha.
Karte Mariupol:
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15162...63/photo/1
Veraltet, dass Stahlwerk dürfte jetzt heute Vormittag endgültig gefallen sein.
9/ Mariupol. Russian forces will more than likely defeat the remaining Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol in the coming week. Ukrainian defenders will not make it easy for the Russians, they will most likely force them to storm their positions rather than surrender.
Der Tod der Zivilisten in und unter dem Stahlwerk ist von den Ukrainern definitiv gewollt um ihn zu instrumentalisieren.
Karte Kherson:
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15162...37/photo/1
10/ Odesa-Kherson OD. Fighting continues for the control of Oleksandrivka to the west of Kherson. There has been little other action in this area over the past 72 hours.
Die Russen haben sich dort zunehmend eingegraben. Bei Verlustbildern aus der Region habe ich eine ganze Reihe russischer Raketenjagdpanzer gesehen, darunter auch solche des neuesten Typs.
11/ Aerospace Assessment. U.S. intelligence estimates that the VKS averages 200 air sorties a day. Russia is still able to conduct missile strikes against Kyiv and into western Ukraine to target both critical infrastructure and civilians alike.