Russland vs. Ukraine

[Quintus Fabius]

Noch so ein Fundstück:

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefMon3/statu...1264937990

Schon die Einleitung gefällt mir:

Karte Nordosten - das jetzt entscheidende Gebiet !

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefMon3/statu...90/photo/1

Battle of the railways. Small thread with me guessing and trying to predict the future (most likely without success) This is roughly what we have now in the eastern part of Ukraine (i know its a mess, but need railways and rivers).

Yesterday, UA forces liberated 2 small settlements SE of Kharkiv. This makes it likely they soon have or already have control over the dam. This opens up a possibility to create a similar scenario to the one we had in Kyiv with Irpin River. (and like we have east of Izium)

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefMon3/statu...56/photo/1

This also diverted the RU supply line further east and secured the area between Donets and Velykyi Burluk river.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefMon3/statu...12/photo/1

Just 50km to the east, we have Kupiansk (red square), its an extremely important railway hub for the Russian advance. Railroad map. I believe this would be the target for a counter offensive in the Kharkiv area. There are more tracks than these, these are the major ones marked.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefMon3/statu...36/photo/1

I think it is likely that we will se and advance to the east between Velykyi Burluk river and the railroad, and disruptive attacks on the railroad in the area north of Kupiansk.

Before anyone gets exited, RU forces still have plenty of ways to get supplies in by road, we do not have a motti if Kupiansk gets contested, it just hinders supplies by railroad.

Einspruch dahingehend, dass der Verbrauch der russischen Artillerie de facto nur per Eisenbahn gedeckt werden kann. Das wird also die größte Einzelstärke der Russen mindern.


I believe RU forces have been using trains to extend their supply line down to Svatove and Borova (based on reports from general staff UA). I think Svatove is supposed to be the main distribution hub for supplies for the next offensive phase of RU forces.

Without trains, the trucks will have to work very hard to keep up with supplies. The route down to the front line will be very long.

Karte Straßenverbindungen:

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefMon3/statu...19/photo/1

I have linked this before, but ill link it again. Take your time to read it, the amount of transports needed to maintain a ground offensive is staggering.

MeToo:

https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feedin...logistics/

Now lets talk about the rivers. If the Velykyi Burluk RIver gets flooded, it would create a 15km/10mile gap for the RU forces to use, I believe this would easily be blocked by UA forces.

Karte Fluss und Überflutungsgebiet:

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefMon3/statu...59/photo/1

With Kupiansk contested, RU forces would have to rely on two bridges for their supply to get west of the Oskil river.

Karte Brücken:

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefMon3/statu...29/photo/1

This is also why the area SE of Izium could be important, to create a railroad and road way connection between Borova and Izium. Most bridges are blown in that area, but RU forces have 38th Railway brigade in the area, they can repair damaged bridges fast.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ILkUrrR...=emb_title


Und weil ich schon auf seiner Seite bin:

Wenn das folgende stimmt hat heute Nachmittag die russische Offensive im Donbass begonnen !

Karte der aktuellen russischen Angriffe:

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefMon3/statu...77/photo/1

Kreminna has possibly fallen in to the hands of the RU forces and Rubizhne.

Yesterday we also saw reports of Artillery and Grads moving NW from Starobilsk to Svatove. They then headed in a westward direction, I think they were going in the direction of Borova.

Könnte die Artillerie sein die Strelkov vor drei Tagen erwähnte, er nannte ja ausdrücklich Grads.

Meiner Meinung nach geht es jetzt los, die Frage ist mit welcher operationellen Zielsetzung ?!


Auch noch ein Kanal der immer einen Blick wert ist:

https://mobile.twitter.com/HN_Schlottman