Russland vs. Ukraine

[Quintus Fabius]

JOMINI:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1515178039327535106

Gesamtkarte:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15151...06/photo/1

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 47-51: The past 120 hrs. have seen Russian forces attempt to break through the Donets River Line & Severodonetsk Salient. In Mariupol Russian forces have made multiple gains, Ukrainian defenses still hold SW & central Mariupol.

Diese Durchbruchsversuche von denen er hier schreibt wurden übrigens mit einem Artilleriefeuer unterstützt was weitgehend an den 1WK erinnert hat (kein Schreibfehler, ich meine den 1)

2/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees top 6.4 million, with over 6.6 million IDPs throughout Ukraine. The extent of destruction to Ukrainian cities due to recent fighting is becoming more apparent as UN UNOSAT data becomes available.

Vogelwild:

https://t.me/ukrpravda_news/14556

3/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for most of the Donbas-Kherson TVD will comprise of increased cloud cover & rainstorms, wind speed will generally average at 10 mph. These conditions will degrade air & artillery strikes, while restricting ground movement.

Karte Raum Kharkiv:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15151...79/photo/1

4/ Kharkiv OD. Russian forces remained focused on fixing Ukrainian maneuver units in the Kharkiv area while screening the movement of Russian forces from Belgorod to Izium. Ukrainian forces appear to be opting for limited attacks against Russian critical targets.

Die Ukrainer stecken da mit ihren mechanisierten Verbänden übrigens auch witterungsbedingt zur Zeit fest.

5/ The Ukrainian SOF attack on the railroad bridge in Shebekino is indicative of the type of Ukrainian offensive action we will see in the Kharkiv OD so the foreseeable future. Raids of this nature are crucial to defeating Russian operations near Izium.

Die ukrainischen Sondereinheiten haben schon mehrere herausragende Operationen durchgeführt, Lehrbuchmäßig bis Episch! Stoff für mehrere Bücher und Filme. Das führt zu der Frage, woher sie ein derartiges Niveau haben und dem folgend zu etlichen Ausbildungs-Missionen der Green Berets in den letzten Jahren.

Karte Severodonetsk:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15151...82/photo/1

6/ Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. Russian forces continue daily small-scale attacks SE & SW of Izium and against Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, and Popasna. Russia continues to feed reinforcements piecemeal into combat like they did around Kyiv.

Dieses verkleckern von Kräften in lauter zu kleinen Angriffswellen deutet meiner Meinung nach auf einen großen (politischen) Druck auf russischer Seite hin. Man verschwendet seine Kräfte in lauter unzureichenden Angriffen mit völlig unzureichenden, zu kleinen Verbänden.

7/ This approach squanders what offensive capability Russia has left. Conversely this plays to Ukraine’s defensive strengths and will allow Ukrainian forces to gradually attrit Russian combat power and enable transition to more significant counterattacks.

Karte Süden:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15151...80/photo/1

8/ Zaporizhzhia OD. Russian activity in the in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast remains focused on the capture of Mariupol. Limited attacks and counterattacks by Russian and Ukrainian forces continue between the line running from Vasylivka to Volnovakha.

Karte Mariupol:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15151...15/photo/1

10/ Mariupol. The situation in Mariupol continues to deteriorate for Ukrainian defenders, yet they hold on to SW & central Mariupol. It is unclear how much longer they can hold out, but the increase of Russian strike activity suggests they have heavily damaged Russian forces.

Die spannende Frage ist hier meiner Meinung nach, wieviele russische Kräfte der Fall der Stadt dann frei setzen wird.

Karte Kherson:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15151...49/photo/1

11/ Odesa-Kherson OD. Russian forces continue to struggle with maintaining meaningful control of Kherson. Attempts to expand the Russian defensive perimeter west of Kherson have not been successful. Ukraine may launch larger counterattacks here.

12/ Aerospace Assessment. According to Oryx, Russia has lost a total of 32 UAVs since 24 Feb, 21 of which have been destroyed while the other 11 have been captured. The Ukrainian forces report 6x Orlan-10 recon UAVs destroyed in the Donbas this week.

Russland hat aber hunderte dieser Drohnen einsatzbereit. Von daher sind diese Verluste völlig irrelevant.

13/ Chem-Bio-Nuclear. Though it is difficult to verify if the Russians did conduct a chemical attack in Mariupol, it is possible this attack occured. Mariupol is ideal to test delivery of chemical munitions by UAV, given the ambiguity of information coming from the city.

14/ Battle Damage Assessment. The Ukrainian General Staff reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 6 attacks throughout the Donbas over the past 24 hours, destroying 4x tanks, 6x armored vehicles, 4x unarmored vehicles, and 1x artillery system.

15/ Information Advantage. The sinking of the Black Seas Fleet flagship, the Moskva, is an important psychological victory for Ukraine, being the largest ship sunk in combat since World War II. The Moskva was the only BSF ship with long-range air defense.

16/ Resisting Occupation. The arrest of Viktor Medvedchuck is an important political victory for Ukraine, as Medvedchuck (who escaped house arrest in February) was the Kremlin’s strongest Ukrainian government ally.

17/ Overall Assessment. Both Ukraine and Russia will not reenter negotiations until they have gained a clear upper hand through operational success in the Donbas. Continued battlefield failures will make the Kremlin more erratic and prone to resort to desperate measures.