Russland vs. Ukraine

[Quintus Fabius]

Jomini:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1505738880779182080

Gesamtkarte:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15057...76/photo/1

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 25: Russian forces generally remain static and continue their transition to defensive operations in the Kyiv and Southern areas of operation. Only limited offensive action took place along the Donets River line & Mariupol.

2/ Humanitarian Impact. Refugees in various European countries exceeds 4.2 million, with 1.85 million IDPs, mostly in western Ukraine. Russian injustices against the Ukrainian populace multiple by the day; kidnappings and seizure of property continues.

3/ Today’s update will focus on the Kyiv area, providing a brief overview of the situation in the capital and surrounding countryside as Russian troops dig in. This is meant to set conditions for a more in-depth study of each AO as the war enters a protracted campaign.

4/ Weather assessment. In Kyiv, visibility & wind speed are favorable for VKS & UAF to execute aerospace operations. Temperatures generally will remain between 14/0 C, wind speed generally favors artillery fire, though there is an increased likelihood for overshooting targets.

5/ Kyiv AO assessments. There has been no change to the situation in Kyiv over the past 48 hours. Russian forces have begun the process to transition from offensive operations to a long-term defense of occupied territory in west, NW, and NE Kyiv.

Karten Kiewer Raum:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15057...19/photo/1

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15057...19/photo/1

6/ It clear that short term political objectives are overriding long-term military success. Russian forces will focus on entrenching their positions while moving forward heavy artillery and rockets to increase and intensify the bombardment of Kyiv.

7/ This move is meant to place political pressure on the Ukrainian government to negotiate with the Kremlin on terms the Russian hope are favorable. This will tie down Ukrainian forces in the defense of Kyiv, reducing the likelihood of a major counteroffensive in other regions.

8/ Aerospace Assessment. Russia’s recent claim of the employment of hypersonic missiles in Ukraine can be assessed to intensify political pressure on the Ukrainian government than to regain operational momentum, given that only two have been used.

9/ The Russians continue to struggle with employing many of its newer MLRS system that could have a dramatic tactical impact but have failed to so far due to poor planning and inadequate battlefield adaptability.

10/ Information War. Russia continues to fall behind in the information sphere. So long as images and messaging from occupied towns and cities can reach the Ukrainian people and international community, resistance will persist and grow.

11/ This makes demands, like the recent Russian MoD call for the surrender of Mariupol by 21 March, seem hollow & desperate. Russia has yet to produce a military situation in which surrender is preferable to continued resistance & is unlikely to do so.

12/ Battle Damage Assessment. Russian equipment and personnel losses continue to mount. In Kyiv the 331st Guards Airborne Regiment is assessed as being destroyed, it can no longer function as a cohesive unit, the 6th Tank Regiment is close to this too.

13/ Tomorrow’s update will focus on the Sumy-Chernihiv AO. I will soon be posting an in-depth look at the first month of the war, analyzing how the Ukrainian response to the Russian invasion resulted in a strategic victory for Ukraine & why the Russian military has so far failed.