Russland vs. Ukraine

[Quintus Fabius]

lime:

Bezüglich Cherson: die waren einfach zu langsam. Von der Dislozierung der Kräfte her hatten sie nicht genug in Cherson selbst und schafften es nicht mehr rechtzeitig Kräfte dorthin zu verlegen. Auch wenn man jetzt die Ukrainer so hochachtet, sind es weniger die Ukrainer die hier besonders fähig wären, sondern die russischen Truppen, die sich besonders unfähig (weit unter ihrem theoretisch möglichen Niveau) gebärden.

Allgemein:

Tag 17 Zusammenfassung:

Gesamt-Karte:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15029...78/photo/1

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 17: Russian forces continued their operational pause in NW Kyiv with limited attacks in east Kyiv, Chernihiv, Mariupol, Zaporizhya, & Kryvyi Rih. The Ukrainians continue to harass Russian supply routes & prepare for offensive action.

6/ Humanitarian Impact. Humanitarian corridors continue to be interdicted or blocked by Russian forces, especially in the Mariupol area. There are reports that Russian Soldiers have begun to pillage humanitarian convoys for supplies. Expect these trends to continue.

7/ Weather assessment. Improved visibility and wind speed throughout Ukraine will increase the frequency of VKS air and missile attacks. Freezing temperatures will continue to hamper tactical movement, morale of Russian forces, and vehicle maintenance.

Karte Raum Kiew:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15029...47/photo/1

8/ Kyiv AO assessment. Russian forces remained largely static in NW Kyiv, continuing their period of refit and reorganization for future operations. The Ukrainian General Staff stated Russian actions were mostly limited reconnaissance patrols to clarify Ukrainian unit positions.

Karte Nordosten:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15029...21/photo/1

9/ Northeast AO assessment. The Ukrainian General Staff states that the Russian military is shifting more reserves to the area for 1) a potential major assault against Sumy and 2) to improve efforts to secure vulnerable supply routes.

Karte Osten / Donbass:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15029...81/photo/1

10/ Kharkiv and Donbas AO assessments. The Balakliiskyi to Zaporizhya line continues to hold against Russian attacks. Ukrainian forces were able to repeal Russian attacks in the northern Mariupol area; however, the Russians captured portions of eastern Mariupol

Karte Süden:

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/15029...97/photo/1

11/ The Southern AO assessment. An advance on Mikolalyv remains the focus of Russian operations; Russian offensive action in the Voznesensk had little success over the past 24 hrs. Russian movement against Kryvyi Rih has been largely ineffective.

12/ Aerospace Assessment. The UAF conducted 10 sorties against Russian supply convoys and unit positions from 11-12 March inflicting significant loses. VKS operations continue to target civilian infrastructure and airfield throughout Ukraine.

13/ The Russians have begun to introduce armed UAVs in support of operations in the Kyiv area. Ukrainian forces were able to down one such UAV over downtown Kyiv. Loiter-munitions are a key component of the concept of blocking a city by fire.

14/ Information War. Ukrainian national leaders continue to dominate the information sphere. Videos like the one below is a case study in real time of maintaining information advantage. It has a profound influence on morale through shared hardships.

15/ Russian Foreign Fighters. A Russian TU-154 airliner is currently enroute to Damascus, presumably to bring back Syrian mercenaries. It remains to be seen if the alleged 16,000 Syrian “volunteers” materialize.

16/ Battle Damage Assessment. Ukrainian military intelligence estimates that since the start of the war Ukrainian forces have attritted 18 BTGs to the point of combat ineffectiveness and destroyed an additional 13 BTGs. This would be ~26% of available BTGs.

17/ Russian Overall Assessment. If the pervious statement is true, then Russia has lost considerable offensive power. Compounded with the loss of several senior, and experienced, field commanders the RusAF face a difficult challenge in regaining the initiative.

18/ Ukrainian Overall Assessment. With an air force of fewer than 100 fixed-wing airframes that can still execute an average of 10 sorties a day and increasing access to SHORAD systems, the Ukrainian military can punch well above its weight.

19/ As long as pressure can continue to be placed on Russian supply routes and convoys the Ukrainians will be able to retain maneuver space that opens opportunity for inflicting a major defeat of Russian forces.

Eine Zusammenfassung über die AZOW (Einheiten) in der ukrainischen Armee:

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/the-units-of-azov/

Umgekehrt über die (wachsende Zahl von) Söldner(n) in russischen Diensten

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60711211

Eine weitere Analyse der russischen Streitkräfte um mal weitere Standpunkte und Sichtweisen einzubringen:

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status...4639141896

Gesamt-Karte:

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/15...18/photo/1

Blick von Osten:

Auf rusisschen Seiten, zu meiner Überraschung sogar auf Sputnik News gibt es immer mehr Filme von Drohnen und Berichte über Loitering Munition, die am Anfang des Krieges auf russischer Seite so gar nicht vorkamen. Hier gibt es nun endlich auch westliche Quellen und Belege dafür:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/15025...74/photo/1

Sehr sicher das folgende System:

https://kalashnikov.media/embed/cjs8samb...47llk9w1d0

Im russischen Fernsehen wird der Ton derweilen immer radikaler: es wird ganz offen über den Einsatz von Nuklearwaffen gesprochen - gegen den Westen - weil dieser sich derart in die Sonderoperation einmischt und deshalb die Gefahr bestünde, dass diese zu einem richtigen Krieg gegen das ukrainische Volk wird, und damit zu einem Krieg gegen die russische Nation (gebt euch mal eine solche Argumentation!). Ebenso wird darüber geredet, dass die Einmischung des Westens zwingend dazu führen wird, dass man an den Grenzen der Ukraine nicht Halt machen wird, sondern weiter marschiert.

Vor allem bei Solowjow hat man die letzten zwei Tage Zeug rausgehaut, dass man es nicht mehr glauben kann. Da haben zu viele jeden Kontakt zur Realität verloren.