USA, Japan, Taiwan und Korea vs. China

[Quintus Fabius]

Diese See-Miliz hat auch etliche größere Kähne, aber es stimmt schon, dass der Gros Fischerboote sind. Das macht sie nicht ungefährlicher, sondern meiner Meinung nach gefährlicher, da diese Fischerboote teilweise extra dafür ausgerüstet werden für ihre Größe erstaunlich große Waffensysteme verdeckt zu transportieren.
Aus einem solchen Schwarm könnte ein ganz erheblicher Erstschlag geführt werden. Und umgekehrt kann man mit solchen Fahrzeugen je nach den Umständen näher an feindliche Verbände heran als mit richtigen Kriegsschiffen. Dazu kommt noch die immense Aufklärungsleistung, die Möglichkeiten im Verbund mit Spezial-Einheiten und U-Booten usw usf Die chinesische See-Miliz ist meiner Meinung nach eine der am stärksten unterschätzten Komponenten in einem möglichen Seekrieg in Ostasien.

[Quintus Fabius]

Hier noch ein Artikel zur ins nirgendwo wachsenden See-Miliz der Volksrepublik:

https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/comm...s-recover/

[Quintus Fabius]

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/...ith-china/

America’s Coming War with China

Conflict is both undesirable and imprudent, but appears inevitable given our current leadership.

Given the rise in anti-Chinese sentiment spawned by the off-shoring of America’s production base to China, the impact of COVID-19, and hyperbolic rhetoric in Washington regarding China’s alleged malevolent aspirations, any number of observers of American politics might easily conclude that Washington is on the precipice of blundering into another war—this time with China. After all, a similar climate of deep-seated paranoia and military hysteria steered the world’s great powers blindly into war in 1914.

[Quintus Fabius]

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3861097

Leaked map shows China plans to invade S. Taiwan after taking Kinmen, Penghu

A photo surfaced Sunday (Jan. 19) on Weibo showing People's Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers sitting next to a map of Taiwan that appears to indicate a southerly route for China's invasion of Taiwan, first going through Kinmen and Penghu, before landing troops in southern Taiwan.

After President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) enjoyed a landslide victory in Taiwan's elections on Jan. 11, Communist China has been doubling down on its rhetoric about the tattered "one country, two systems" framework and adhering to the "1992 Consensus" — expressing its opposition to "Taiwan independence" despite the fact that Taiwan has never been a part of Communist China. In a joint statement issued with Myanmar on Saturday (Jan. 18), China reaffirmed the "one-China" principle and categorized "Taiwan as an inalienable part of the People's Republic of China's territory."

In a statement on Sunday (Jan. 19), Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Joanne Ou (歐江安) responded by saying: "The ministry condemns such false statements that diminish the sovereignty of the Republic of China." Ou added: "Taiwan is not part of China, and only the Taiwanese government elected by its people can represent Taiwan in the international arena."

Later that afternoon, two accounts on the tightly government-orchestrated social media site Weibo, Tianfu Community and Dingsheng Forum, released a photo of PLA soldiers seated with their backs turned to a massive topographical model of southern Taiwan. The model is covered in black marks, appearing to show key strategic locations the PLA plans to seize during an invasion.

In the background, a sign can be seen which reads, "Southern Island-Landing Battle Group Command Post" (南部登岛作战群指挥所) seeming to indicate the name of the military unit. On a wall on the right, a large map is mounted which reads, "Southen Island-Landing Battle Group Landing Craft Loading Map" (南部登岛作战群装载航渡图).

[Quintus Fabius]

Militärhilfe für Taiwan:

https://warisboring.com/taiwan-praises-u...s-package/

https://warisboring.com/japan-to-deploy-...ith-china/

[Quintus Fabius]

Überlegungen über alternative Wege in Ostasien welche die VR China wählen könnte um ihre Macht auf andere Weise auszudehnen:

https://peacediplomacy.org/2021/07/29/rc...d-beijing/

the creation of a new Asian trading bloc called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP—a free trade agreement between China and the 15 Asia-Pacific nations of Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Together with China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea (ROK)—three of the four largest economies in Asia, the 15 member countries represent roughly a third of the world’s population and a third of global gross domestic product (GDP). Australia, meanwhile, is the top energy exporter within RCEP and the single largest source of coal and liquified natural gas (LNG) for China, Japan, and the ROK.

The strategic implications are inescapable. RCEP will not only surpass the European Union to become the world’s largest free trading bloc, but it will also lift tariffs and duties on 90% of commodities traded within the bloc over the next 20 years and significantly boost regional energy trade. RCEP will also establish new rules for e-commerce in Asia to include trade and intellectual property.

It is easy to imagine that the sheer magnitude of trade will likely shift the center of gravity for global economic activity to Asia. In any case, China is now destined to be the dominant force influencing the rules of trade in the Asia-Pacific region. Washington is only just beginning to grasp the implications. Recognizing a few basic facts could help toward that end.

First, in its dealings with the world, Beijing works hard to avoid military confrontation and unnecessary escalation. China makes no attempt to export Confucianism and pursues a policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of its potential customers. Instead, Beijing focuses ardently on its economic interests employing the power of money in all imaginable forms to cultivate customers and clients. As a result, Asian states are understandably reluctant to be identified with Washington’s scheme to contain or strangle China. RCEP members realize the huge economic potential of China and have no appetite for antagonizing Beijing, let alone go to war with it; indeed, they look to the Agreement as an efficient way to do business with the world’s largest market and advance their own interests.

Second, Americans fail to understand that Japan’s history of conflict with China revolved around the former’s unwillingness to make itself a tributary state of Greater China for the sake of gaining access to Chinese markets, not to mention the struggle for control of the Korean Peninsula. President Xi and his government have resolved the first conflict. Xi has given Japan complete access to Chinese markets from agriculture to mining and manufacturing. And Tokyo is also viewed by Beijing as an important source of capital investment for the foreseeable future. As for the second fault line, until Washington disengages its forces from the ROK, there will be no resolution of the conflict on the Korean Peninsula.

Finally, Washington’s inclination to militarize its dispute with China when the strategic competition in Asia actually centers on economic, not military, concerns is worse than foolish. It is also self-defeating, akin to a hurricane blowing down the White House and the occupant being concerned solely with repairing the mailbox.

[Schneemann]

China's TB001 reconnaissance UAV sighted near Japanese airspace for the first time

The Japanese Ministry of Defense's (MoD's) Joint Staff Office announced on 25 August that fighters scrambled by the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) have intercepted a new type of Chinese medium-altitude long-endurance unmanned aerial vehicle (MALE UAV) that skirted Japanese airspace, flying over the East China Sea in the direction of the Nansei/Ryukyu Island chain the day before.

The JASDF has also visually identified the UAV as the TB001, although it did not provide further details other than the observed flightpath of the air vehicle, which saw it approach Okinawa and Miyako Island, before turning back to Chinese airspace in the vicinity of disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. [...] On the same day, the JASDF also intercepted a separate flight of other Chinese military aircraft comprising an in-service BZK-005 reconnaissance UAV and two Shaanxi Y-9 surveillance aircraft – with one configured for maritime patrol and the other for signals intelligence operations – which overflew the Miyako Strait between Miyako Island and Okinawa into the Pacific Ocean before returning to China.

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-...first-time

Schneemann.

[Quintus Fabius]

Chinesische Kriegsschiffe gurken an den Aleuten herum:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42...oast-guard

he U.S. Coast Guard recently released a set of pictures of the Legend class cutter USCGC Bertholf shadowing a group of four Chinese warships sailing in America's Exclusive Economic Zone near Alaska's Aleutian Islands back in August. The emergence of these pictures follows the editor-in-chief of Global Times, a newspaper under the direct control of the Chinese Communist Party, taking to Twitter to criticize U.S. Navy operations in the Pacific that routinely challenge many of Beijing's widely disputed maritime territorial claims, especially in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, and warn of tit-for-tat activities on the part of the People's Liberation Army Navy.

Solche gegenseitigen Reaktionen auf vorherige Aktionen des anderen werden in Zukunft wohl häufiger vorkommen.

[Schneemann]

Biden Administration Should Make Guam’s Defense Center of Indo-Pacific Strategy, Expert Says

The defense of Guam should be the centerpiece of the Biden administration’s focus on countering threats from China in the Indo-Pacific, an expert on missile defense said Wednesday.

“Make the main thing the main thing,” Thomas Karako, director of the missile defense project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said. He stressed the island’s strategic importance to American presence and operations in the region. The U.S. territory provides major support for Navy submarines operating in the Pacific, an air base capable of sustaining Air Force strategic bombers and a Coast Guard headquarters and several cutters. [...]

The former head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Adm. Phil Davidson, has advocated for the Aegis Ashore ballistic missile defense system to defend Guam from Chinese missiles. Davidson included the system in a list of priorities he sent to Congress about the Indo-Pacific.

To defend Guam against new hypersonic and updated cruise missiles or an “old-fashioned ballistics’” attack from China or North Korea, Karako said the threats have to be identified. Defending Guam would require working with mature technologies, providing integrated air and missile defense systems for the island, and having these systems be interoperable among the services and with allies.

https://news.usni.org/2021/10/07/biden-a...xpert-says

Schneemann

[Schneemann]

Biden vows to protect Taiwan in event of Chinese attack

Baltimore (CNN) - President Joe Biden said Thursday the US was committed to coming to Taiwan's defense if it comes under attack from China -- a stance that seems in opposition to America's stated policy of "strategic ambiguity." Asked twice during CNN's town hall whether the US would protect Taiwan if China attacked, Biden said it would. "Yes, we have a commitment to do that," he said. [...] A White House official attempted to clarify Biden's comments on Taiwan after the town hall, saying the President was "not announcing any change in our policy and there is no change in our policy" in his remarks about China and Taiwan. [...]

Biden said Thursday he was not concerned about an intentional military conflict with China — but indicated he was worried about unintentional escalation. "China, Russia and the rest of the world knows we have the most powerful military in history of the world. Don't worry about whether they're going to be more powerful," he said. "But you do have to worry about whether or not they're going to engage in activities put them in a position where they may make a serious mistake." Biden, citing his relationship with Xi, said he wasn't looking to enter a prolonged conflict.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/21/polit...index.html

Schneemann

[Quintus Fabius]

https://warontherocks.com/2021/12/embrac...e-in-asia/

Embrace the Arms Race in Asia

There is a lot of concern that the rapid build-up in Asia of Chinese and American military power will make war more likely, and that such a war between nuclear-armed powers will be hugely destructive. In this view, arms races are wasteful tragedies that unfold when adversaries fail to negotiate security at a cheaper level of expenditures. Warnings about arms races are also used by concerned anti-war groups, and by China as part of its public diplomacy campaign. For example, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesmen Zhao Lijian warned that “the US, the UK and Australia’s cooperation in nuclear submarines severely damages regional peace and stability, intensifies the arms race.”

........

But arms races do not cause war. Every case of war that followed an arms build-up was the consequence of the weakness of the attacked party. Any caution by the United States and its allies in equipping for war will reduce deterrence, and will set the circumstances for whether there is a decision to go to war in Beijing. It will tempt Beijing with the prospect of a successful fait accompli attack against Taiwan and its outlying islands of Kinmen, Wuqiu, Matsu, Pratas, Itu Aba, and Penghu.

China will predictably stoke concerns about arms races, while avoiding any arms control constraints on their own military build-up. If China closes the gap on, for example, the number of ocean-going platforms, or submarines, or total missile tubes, or achieves a sufficient concentration in sea denial systems, such as sea mines or anti-ship ballistic missiles, then Beijing will view war as an attractive option. The likelihood of war will be reduced dramatically, therefore, if the United States and its democratic allies commit to the procurement of a sustainably robust defense.

[Quintus Fabius]

Immer schärfere Töne:

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20...-on-taiwan

China warns US will 'face unbearable price' on Taiwan

hina's foreign minister said Thursday the United States will "face an unbearable price" over its actions towards the self-ruled island of Taiwan, in Beijing's latest threat over the flashpoint island.
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Tensions between China and the US have soared in recent years over issues including human rights, trade and technological competition, with Taiwan emerging as a major flashpoint.

China claims the democratic island of Taiwan as its own territory, and has vowed to seize it one day by force if necessary.

Although most countries have chosen to formally recognise Beijing over Taipei, many have retained strong unofficial links with the latter, which China bristles at.

In an interview with state broadcaster CCTV and official news agency Xinhua broadcast Thursday, Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned that Washington's interference could lead to a dangerous situation.

"The US violated the promises made when China and the US established diplomatic relations, condoned and encouraged 'Taiwan independence' forces, and tried to distort and hollow out the one-China principle," Wang Yi said.

"This will not only bring Taiwan into an extremely dangerous situation, but also cause the US to face an unbearable price."