Sechster Nahostkrieg

[Nightwatch]

Die Zeit realtiver Ruhe im Norden ist wohl wieder vorbei, gab einen massiven Raketenangriff auf Safed

Approximately 40 rockets were launched from Lebanon into northern Israel on Thursday evening, targeting communities in the Upper Galilee region. The Iron Dome missile defense system intercepted about half of the rockets.

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hja21xs8a#autoplay

US intel indicates war between Israel and Hezbollah inching closer
A large-scale confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah is likely to break out in the next several weeks if Jerusalem and Hamas fail to reach a cease-fire deal in Gaza, U.S. intelligence indicates.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/27...r-00165338

Erwartungen:

Cost of conflict for Hezbollah:
1. Israel is creating de facto “buffer zone” inside Lebanon by destroying areas within 5 km of border in ongoing strikes, @FT
reports. Much of this strip, used as launching pad & terror base for Hezbollah attacks, is reportedly ruined.
2. Hezbollah pays heavy price for war of attrition vs Israel, says Mideast expert Amatzia Baram via @MaarivOnline
: Losing domestic support in Lebanon, hundreds of operatives killed, massive economic damage, 100,000 residents displaced.
3. Bottom line: Nasrallah is trapped in a costly conflict but can’t end it before Gaza war ends. Meanwhile, IDF keeps pounding south Lebanon & preparing for a large war, which will be painful for Israel but a total disaster for Hezbollah.

https://x.com/IsraelRadar_com/status/180...8643544169

@IsraelPresident: The [world] cannot act surprised if the situation spirals out of control, as the international community has almost done nothing to contribute to the full security of residents of Israel, despite repeated violations of treaties and int'l agreements by Hezbollah

https://x.com/InstaNewsAlerts/status/180...0028759497

Guess how many Israeli localities have been depopulated because of Hezbollah attacks since October 8?
81. Yes, 81. From kibbutzim to whole towns. Emptied of their residents who can't go back home.
Hezbollah must back off or Israel will push it away.

https://x.com/EylonALevy/status/1806019172570132532

The German Foreign Minister carried a message to Beirut stating that Israel is seriously considering expanding the war and that no one in the West will be able to repel it (Al-Akhbar)

https://x.com/EndGameWW3/status/1806180958279737714

[KheibarShekan]

Iran envoy to UN: All options on table if Israel wages war on Lebanon
Saturday, 29 June 2024 10:24 AM [ Last Update: Saturday, 29 June 2024 10:24 AM ]

In this file picture, fighters from the Iraqi Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba resistance movement march in military uniforms marking International Quds Day in the capital Baghdad. (Photo by AP)
Iran’s permanent mission to the United Nations has dismissed Israel’s threats of launching a war on Lebanon as “psychological warfare”, stressing that all options, including full involvement of all resistance groups in West Asia, are on the table in case of such military aggression.

“Albeit Iran deems as psychological warfare the Zionist regime’s propaganda about intending to attack Lebanon, should it embark on full-scale military aggression, an obliterating war will ensue. All options, incl. the full involvement of all Resistance Fronts, are on the table,” the mission said in a post published on its official X account on Saturday.
...
Earlier this week, the secretary general of Iraq’s Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq resistance group warned Israel against waging a new war on Lebanon, emphasizing that the strategic interests of its main ally, the United States, in West Asia will be targeted in such a case.

“If America continues to support the usurping Israeli regime, and the Zionist enemy expands its assaults on Lebanon and Hezbollah, Washington’s interests in the region and Iraq will be in jeopardy,” Qais al-Khazali said.#
...
Hezbollah officials have repeatedly said they do not want a war with Israel but if it happens they are ready.
...

https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/06/29...cked--Iran

Die Gegenseite scheint einen offenen Krieg im Libanon nicht wirklich zu begrüßen und warnt ausdrücklich, den Konflikt dann ebenfalls auszuweiten. Grundsätzlich aber nicht überraschend, dass schon lange nicht mehr nur um lokale Brennpunkte geht und das dürfte Teil der gemeinsamen militärstrategischen Kalkulation der USA und Israel sicher auch sein. Faktisch findet dieser Konflikt ja bereits heute auf dieser größeren auf kalter Ebene statt, er würde dann nur entsprechend offener und direkter geführt werden.