12.06.2022, 11:08
Zitat:Iran is closer than ever to a nuclear weapon as Biden runs out of optionshttps://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/12/middl...index.html
(CNN) - Long-running tensions over Iran's nuclear capabilities may have reached a point of no return this week, thrusting the Middle East into uncharted waters. Tehran has ramped up uranium enrichment at a pace not seen since the 2015 signing of a landmark deal, which saw Iran curb uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief, before former United States President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018. [...]
On Thursday, Iran switched off surveillance cameras used by the international nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, to monitor activity at the country's key nuclear facilities. The move, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi warned, could deal a "fatal blow" to negotiations that seek to revive the nuclear deal. The absence of footage from nuclear sites deprives the negotiators of the nuclear deal -- known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) -- of data, making it "technically impossible to have an agreement," IAEA chief Raphael Grossi told CNN Thursday. [...]
Iran has also begun installing advanced centrifuges in a cluster at an underground enrichment plant, according to Reuters, which reported that it saw an IAEA report describing the escalated nuclear activity in Iran. The reported incident came after the governing body of the IAEA passed a resolution for failing to explain uranium traces found at three undeclared sites. The acceleration of Iran's nuclear program comes amid rising tensions between Iran and the US. Talks around the JCPOA are at a standstill over mounting pressure from Tehran to have the country's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) -- the elite branch of the Iranian Armed Forces -- delisted as a terror organization. [...]
The stalled negotiations have dangerous implications for the region. [...] But as with many Obama-era policies, Trump was intent on undoing the landmark nuclear agreement, citing Iran's continued meddling in the Middle East through Tehran-aligned paramilitary groups. An ardent opponent of Trump's so-called "maximum pressure campaign" against Iran, US President Joe Biden revived the negotiations when he took office. But Biden's policy has so far failed to resurrect the deal, and Iran has steadily upped the ante in violating its end of the agreement. [...]
Iran remains roughly a year away from manufacturing a nuclear weapon, according to analysts, who say that the region could now move inexorably towards further escalation. [...] Meanwhile, Biden has run out of options, given that the US has already sanctioned Iran under the Trump administration. [...] This may lead the US and its allies to consider pursuing a military option. A war on Iran may crush its nuclear program, but would wreak unspeakable havoc on the region as a whole, in addition to dragging the US into a region it has tried to disengage from.
Es stellt sich noch nicht einmal so sehr die Frage, wie sich die USA verhalten werden. Entscheidend wird eher sein, wie sich die Protagonisten in Nahost verhalten. Die Israelis werden notfalls nicht zögern. Und man sollte bedenken, dass auch die Saudis und die Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate ein eigenes Atomprogramm laufen haben. Möglich, dass es bald ein nukleares Wettrüsten am Golf gibt.
Schneemann