Afghanistan

[Quintus Fabius]

Russland weitet seinen Einfluss in Nord-Afghanistan aus:

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Russia keeps wary eye on Afghanistan

The rushed visits by Tajikistan President Emomali Rahmon and Kyrgyzstan President Almazbek Atambayev to Moscow and their meetings separately with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday underscore that the developments in northern Afghanistan have set alarm bells ringing in the Central Asian steppes. Tajikistan is a ‘frontline’ state sharing a 1200-kilometre border with Afghanistan, while Kyrgyzstan is the Central Asian hub of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization [CSTO] forces.

The Kremlin readout quoted Rahmon as saying, “I would like to take up [with Putin] security issues within the CSTO responsibility zone because the Tajik-Afghan border runs through that zone. The situation in Afghanistan worsens with every day. Hostilities are underway along over 60 percent of the border. This is very alarming; therefore, I would like to take up specifically matters of ensuring security in the region”. Putin himself said, “the situation in the region cannot but cause concern”.

The good part, from the Russian perspective, is that Kyrgyzstan, which just held a parliamentary vote, billed as the fairest and most transparent in the history of the region, has elected pro-Russian political parties to form the next government. The US has been evicted from the Kyrgyz airbase in Manas and it now passes to the Russian military on a 15-year lease beginning 2017. Suffice it to say, Kyrgyzstan is no longer a cockpit of plots hatched by the US to weaken the Russian presence in Central Asia. This has major strategic implications at a time when Russia cannot afford the ‘great-game’ distractions and needs reliable local partners to help consolidate its response to the security challenge emanating from Afghanistan.

The developments in the northern Afghan city of Kunduz signal that the region is going to have to tackle a major security challenge in the period ahead. The point is, a large swathe of territory in northern Afghanistan straddling the Tajik, Uzbek and Turkmen borders – provinces of Faryab, Badghis, and Jowzjan in the northwest and Baghlan, Kunduz, Takhar and Badkhshan in the northeast – has become unstable. There is much fluidity in that region and the capability of the Afghan government forces and affiliated militia groups to reverse the tide and gain the upper hand appears very doubtful as of now.