USA vs. Iran

[Shahab3]

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But several Israeli experts say that the Osirak experience bears little relevance in the case of Iran and that the chances of a repeat strike are very low.

Unlike in the early 1980s when Israel found itself isolated in perceiving a threat from Iraq's nuclear program, the prospect of US-led multilateral pressure against Iran casts a unilateral strike in a more-problematic light.

With National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice warning last week that the US won't tolerate a nuclear Iran, Israel is much more likely to act in tandem with its most powerful ally rather than electing to go it alone, observers say.

"The circumstances are quite different," says Ephraim Kam, head of the Begin Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar Ilan University in Ramat Gan, Israel. "If Israel is going to take any move beyond the diplomatic move, there should be better understanding in the international arena that there is no way to stop the Iranians."

Tehran admits it has sought so-called dual-use nuclear technology in order to generate electricity, but denies it aims to build nuclear weapons.

Repeat Performance?

Even the very ability of Israel's military to repeat the decisive strike achieved at Osirak appears doubtful. While the Iraqi nuclear effort was concentrated at the Osirak plant, nuclear experts say the Iranians have dispersed their program at multiple sites, some of which are hidden underground.

That makes a repeat performance of the clean and decisive blow against Iraq almost impossible, analysts say. Not only is it unclear how Israeli forces would eliminate underground centrifuge installations, but the task of locating all of Iran's nuclear targets requires a high degree of intelligence and risk.

"I don't think there's an option for a preemptive act because we're talking about a different sort of a nuclear program," says Shmuel Bar, a fellow at the Institute for Policy and Strategy at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, Israel. "A hit-and-run preemptive attack can't guarantee much success."
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August 16, 2004 "Israel Insider" -- "The entire Zionist territory, including its nuclear facilities and atomic arsenal, are currently within range of Iran's advanced missiles," a senior Iranian official said yesterday. He warned that his country would strike at Israel if either "the Zionist regime or America will carry out its threats" against Iran. Israel plans additional tests for its Arrow missile interceptor, to boost the system's efficiency against a possible Iranian attack.
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Military experts believe an air strikes similar to Israel's strike against Iraq's nuclear facility in Osirak in 1986 would be ineffective because many of Iran's nuclear facilities are spread out and built underground.

Meanwhile, Israeli defense officials are planning a new test of the Arrow-2 missile interceptor, to boost its speed and accuracy against a possible ballistic attack from Iran.
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Das sind die 2 größten Probleme der Israelis.