Russland vs. Ukraine

[Zardo]

nach diesem Bericht ist Wladimir Putins Invasions-Armee am Ende: hier ist die angesprochene Analyse (english)

MSN: in diesem Fall sehr schwache Sekundärquelle mit reißerischem Titel.

Wenn man sich die verlinkte Analyse anschaut, kommt das Wort "Panzer" (tank) nur genau einmal vor, und zwar in diesem Satz:

Russian stockpiles of legacy Soviet equipment, from tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, to artillery pieces, will be running out between now and mid-autumn, such that Russia’s ability to replace losses will be entirely dependent on what it can produce from scratch.

Was keinesfalls bedeutet, dass sie Russen schon morgen möglicherweise keine Panzer mehr haben.

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-researc...-offensive

[Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzEzo8Nwh1A]

Russian army to keep fighting and because they are doing that across around 15 to 20 km of depth the Russians are really struggling to make progress every few hundred meters is costing them a lot of people and a lot of material at the operational level however the Russians are still making progress against their objectives and that's largely because while they are not very good at taking ground the quality of their forces has declined significantly they are replacing their losses both in terms of people and personnel at a sustainable rate in terms of people and at a rate which gives them a reasonable runway in terms of equipment

Speziell führt er weiter aus, dass die Russen bei Fortführung des Abnutzungskriegs zunächst einen Mangel an Soldaten erleiden werden, welchen sie mit unpopulären Massnahmen werden ausgleichen müssen, und erst später ein Problem mit militärischem Gerät haben werden.

the Russians are quite prepared to keep this fight going they see their leverage building over time uh but there will be an inflection point where if the current rate of losses is sustained the Russians will have to make some very difficult political choices if they want to keep the loss rate that they currently have and that will essentially lead them to need to uh forcefully mobilize a proportion of their population and after that point they will also start running into equipment shortages and so if Ukraine can fight to a standstill essentially up to that tipping point strategic leverage is likely to tip the other way