AUKUS vs. EU vs. China

[Schneemann]

Eine kritische Gegenmeinung zu AUKUS und den Folgen. Ganz von der Hand zu weisen sind die Einwände nicht - Australien als de facto ein Nicht-Atom-Staat bekommt Atom-U-Boote, die zwar von Reichweite etc. sicherlich hervorragend sind, aber auch entsprechende Logistik und Infrastruktur benötigen und in den flacheren Randgewässern Asiens nicht zwingend von taktischem Vorteil sein müssen. Zumal der Zoff mit Frankreich nicht gerade hilfreich ist. Hinzu kommen Bedenken bzgl. einer Steilvorlage der chinesischen Machtambitionen - die aber meiner Meinung nach sowieso vorliegend sind...

The unintended consequences of the AUKUS deal

Washington and other allied capitals have been abuzz with talk of nuclear submarines since the surprise announcement of the new trilateral pact known as AUKUS in September. Aside from the frictions with France, the new agreement has been met with nearly universal adulation from the U.S. foreign policy establishment. [...] How to prevent myriad other countries from leaping into the domain of nuclear power for military applications when this is exactly how the leading powers are proceeding with selected “special friends”? [...]

The most devastating critique of AUKUS, however, was delivered by someone well acquainted with the relevant facts: former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. He asked incredulously how a country with no civil nuclear program whatsoever was going to put together a near-term program for nuclear submarine fabrication and operations? Turnbull concludes: “There is no design, no costing, no contract. The only certainty is that we won’t have new submarines for 20 years, and their cost will be a lot more than the French subs.” [...]

This concerns whether the AUKUS deal might accelerate an undersea arms race that is already underway, and could paradoxically tip the balance against America and its allies. True, China is making steady upgrades to its own nuclear submarine fleet and has recently significantly enlarged its own nuclear submarine building capacity. [...] Beijing and Moscow have been coordinating maritime strategy for some time already. Indeed, many of China’s aircraft, submarines, and missiles have Russian origins. The Chinese fleet has already made some limited appearances in both the Baltic and Black seas. [...]

There are many reasons to be skeptical AUKUS is a “silver bullet” when it comes to the Chinese maritime challenge. The PLA Navy has spent the last two decades trying to close the gap on anti-submarine warfare and progress is evident, whether in the buildup of light frigates or maritime patrol aircraft. Moreover, nuclear submarines may not be optimal for the shallow and often confined waters of the East Asian littoral. Modern diesel submarines are arguably both quieter and much cheaper.

https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/comm...ukus-deal/

Schneemann