15.01.2021, 23:58
https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202101150008
Rein persönlich halte ich auch einen größeren Krieg in Ostasien für wahrscheinlicher als dass die ganze Lage dort friedlich ausgeht. Das ist nur eine Frage der Zeit.
Zitat:U.S. think tank lists Taiwan issue as top-tier risk for 1st time
The New York-based Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) has listed a possible conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan as a top-tier concern for the first time in its annual Preventive Priorities Survey.
The report, released Thursday, assessed the likelihood and impact of 30 potential conflicts that could break out over the next year based on responses from some 550 U.S. government officials, foreign policy experts and academics.
Those conflicts are classified into one of three tiers, and the possibility of "intensifying political and economic pressure from China against Taiwan, leading to a severe crisis with the United States," was classified as a Tier 1 risk for the first time.
A U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan was listed as a Tier 2 risk in 2019 and 2020, but was classified as a Tier 1 risk this year based on its high potential impact on U.S. interests and moderate likelihood of happening in 2021, the report said.
According to the council's definitions, a "high" impact on U.S. interests refers to a contingency that directly threatens the U.S. homeland, a defense treaty ally, or a vital strategic interest, and is thus likely to trigger a major U.S. military response.
A "moderate" likelihood is one that has an even chance of happening.
By contrast, the possibility of "an armed confrontation in the South China Sea involving China and the United States over freedom of navigation and disputed territorial claims" was downgraded from a Tier 1 to a Tier 2 risk, as it was judged to have a low likelihood of occurring in the coming year.
Rein persönlich halte ich auch einen größeren Krieg in Ostasien für wahrscheinlicher als dass die ganze Lage dort friedlich ausgeht. Das ist nur eine Frage der Zeit.