Israel vs. Syrien

[Shahab3]

The next Israel-Hezbollah war is unfolding in southern Syria
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While strikes against ISIS are capturing the headlines, the United States and its international partners risk overlooking the potential strategic significance of developments in Syria’s south.

In early February, an alliance of Iran, the Syrian regime, and Hezbollah launched a major military offensive against rebel groups in Syria’s south, close to the borders of Israel and Jordan.

This campaign bears potential strategic consequences for Israel and the Syrian theater, and calls for close US and international attention.

The war in the South

Some 4,000-5,000 troops have been massed for the offensive, which focuses on the provinces of Deraa, bordering Jordan, and Quneitra, bordering the Israel-controlled Golan Heights.

Combatants include units from the Syrian army; the National Defense Forces, a government militia; an estimated 2,000 Hezbollah fighters, constituting a sizable portion of the group’s forces in Syria; and, notably, Iranian military elements including advisors and senior officers.

A website close to the Syrian regime posted a photo of Gen. Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force, visiting the area, signaling its importance to Iran.
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The attacking forces have experienced modest success overall thus far. After capturing several towns and villages and dominating hilltops in northwest Deraa, about twenty kilometers from the Israeli border, they encountered strong rebel opposition and adverse weather conditions.

However, with the aid of Syrian airstrikes, they continue to persistently push southward and westward.
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