Zitat:Will Israel Strike Iran?

Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate whether Israel will strike Iranian nuclear facilities and whether the United States would discourage, encourage, or participate in such an operation. They come to very different conclusions not just about the likelihood of strikes, but also the strategic logic.

(04.04.2025, 17:48)KheibarShekan schrieb: Das Problem ist eher, dass Israel in einem Schlagabtausch mit dem Iran aus der Ferne sogar innerhalb von Wochen der gegenseitigen Abnutzung den Kürzen ziehen könnte

(04.04.2025, 20:06)Broensen schrieb: Wieviel Raketen und Drohnen soll der Iran denn gebunkert haben, um Israels Flugabwehr blank zu schießen und dann noch genug Kapazitäten für ernsthafte Zerstörungen auf Distanz zu besitzen?

Zitat:Während ein schlagkräftige moderne Luftwaffe gegen die größten Hits der 60er bis 80er antritt.

Zitat:The Iranian SSM attack back in April / October 2024 caused some 38 warhead impacts on Nvatim AB. Remains are still visible!
Two service hangars for the vital G550 AWACS/Elint ac are now under repair.
This forced the entire G550 fleet to stand in the open along the apron.

Zitat:BREAKING: Israeli officials have confirmed to Axios that intensive preparations are underway for a potential swift and decisive strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.

The operation, if launched, is expected to evolve into a sustained military campaign lasting at least a week. The IDF are reportedly preparing for an extremely complex and high-risk operation, with the understanding that it could carry significant and far-reaching consequences across the region.

Zitat:The US has obtained new intelligence suggesting that Israel is making preparations to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, even as the Trump administration has been pursuing a diplomatic deal with Tehran, multiple US officials familiar with the latest intelligence told CNN.

Such a strike would be a brazen break with President Donald Trump, US officials said. It could also risk tipping off a broader regional conflict in the Middle East — something the US has sought to avoid since the war in Gaza inflamed tensions beginning in 2023.

Zitat:Drohungen des schurkischen israelischen Regimes sind nichts Neues. Aber die jüngste undichte Stelle, in der US-Beamte zitiert werden, die israelische Pläne für einen unrechtmäßigen Angriff auf den Iran und seine Nuklearanlagen enthüllen, ist alarmierend und rechtfertigt eine sofortige und ernsthafte Verurteilung durch den UN-Sicherheitsrat und die IAEO.

In einem Schreiben an den Generalsekretär der Vereinten Nationen, Guterres, und den Generaldirektor der IAEO, Grossi, habe ich die internationale Gemeinschaft aufgefordert, wirksame Präventivmaßnahmen gegen die Fortsetzung der israelischen Drohungen zu ergreifen, die, wenn sie ungehindert fortgesetzt werden, den Iran zwingen werden, besondere Maßnahmen zum Schutz unserer Nuklearanlagen und -materialien zu ergreifen.

Mein Schreiben ist eine ernstzunehmende Vorwarnung. Die Art, der Inhalt und das Ausmaß unserer Maßnahmen werden den Präventivmaßnahmen entsprechen, die von diesen internationalen Gremien im Einklang mit ihren gesetzlichen Aufgaben und Verpflichtungen ergriffen werden, und sie werden verhältnismäßig sein.

Offensichtlich scheut der gesuchte Kriegsverbrecher Netanjahu - der verzweifelt versucht, den USA vorzuschreiben, was sie tun können und was nicht - keine Mühe, die Diplomatie zum Scheitern zu bringen und die Aufmerksamkeit von seinem ICC-Haftbefehl abzulenken.

Die Islamische Republik Iran wird nicht zögern, auf jede Übertretung mit Gewalt zu reagieren, und sie wird vor nichts Halt machen, um ihre Interessen und ihr Volk zu schützen.

Zitat:Iran Obtains Large Amount of Data on Israeli Nuclear Sites: Report
June, 07, 2025 - 17:04 Politics news
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The sources said the operation to gain access to the documents was carried out recently, but it was kept in the dark due to the huge amount of the documents and the necessity for the safe transfer of the trove to protected sites.
https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2025/06/07/3329815/iran-obtains-large-amount-of-data-on-israeli-nuclear-sites-report

Zitat:‘A testament to Iran’s intelligence command’
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According to Salami, the triumph, therefore, dispelled the myth of the regime’s purported world-class “espionage and security” structure, inflicting fresh “shock and instability” to it following al-Aqsa Flood.

The commander finally vowed that the counterintelligence masterstroke would, by no means, mark the last time the Islamic Republic had struck the regime.

"This blow will not be the final strike to this regime’s decaying corpse, and heralds the final victory of truth over falsehood."
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Zitat:By Mona Hojat Ansari
Iran's Israel documents a damning expose of IAEA
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What the data contains

The extracted information spans various sectors, but data related to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is especially relevant in light of the agency's recent increased pressure on Tehran.

According to sources speaking to the Tehran Times, Iran uncovered confidential letters it had sent to the IAEA within the occupied territories, along with other secret documents belonging to the UN nuclear watchdog concerning its nuclear program.

One source stated that Iran suspects Israel did not obtain the letters and documents through espionage but received them directly from the IAEA. "Of course, if proven to be true, this would not be too surprising," the source said. "We have long known that the IAEA functions as a political tool, rather than a technical body with legal obligations."

A report presented to IAEA member states last month by Director-General Rafael Grossi reiterated previously addressed and refuted allegations regarding Iran's nuclear activities. That was seen as setting the stage for a resolution, anticipated at the agency's annual board meeting currently in session, accusing Iran of non-compliance with its non-proliferation commitments. Such a resolution would then pave the way for the activation of the so-called snapback mechanism, which would return anti-Iran UN sanctions lifted under the JCPOA.

It is unclear whether the newly obtained information will prompt Iran to restrict IAEA inspections of its nuclear sites, which face more scrutiny than any other nuclear facility globally. But the spokesperson of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) stated Monday that Tehran would reduce its cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog to pre-JCPOA levels if the agency does not demonstrate “gratitude”.

The IAEA's intensive inspections of Iranian nuclear sites began under the 2015 nuclear deal. Despite the West's failure to uphold its commitments and the reimposition of sanctions, Tehran has allowed IAEA inspectors to remain in the country and continue their work.

‘More targets for Iranian missiles’

Apart from the cozy relationship between the IAEA and Israel, Iran’s successful intelligence operation has led to the discovery of the locations of secret nuclear sites built by Israel in the occupied territories. In a statement published on Monday, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) said it now possesses a “bank of Zionist targets”.

“These [hidden] sites would be attacked in response to any Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure,” the statement read. Israeli officials have said they would attack Iran’s nuclear sites if indirect negotiations between Tehran and Washington fail to lead to their “dismantlement”.

Also commenting on the significance of the newly-acquired information, the chief commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) said the Islamic Republic will be able to strike potential Israeli targets “more precisely” now.

"Undoubtedly, this sensitive intelligence will render the efforts that are aimed at accelerating the annihilation of the occupying Zionist regime more effective and increase the precision of [potential future] Iranian missile strikes,” Major General Hossein Salami wrote in a message issued on Tuesday.

Iran attacked Israeli positions in the occupied territories twice in 2024 with missiles and drones. Operation True Promise II, the second attack, achieved a success rate of over 80%.

A lot more remains undiscussed

When breaking the news of the intelligence operation in remarks to national TV, Khatib said the volume of documents obtained was so immense that “thousands of documents’ is a gross understatement compared to what has been acquired."