Zitat:A Putin War With NATO Would Cost the World $1.5 Trillion

By
Bloomberg Economics
and
Bloomberg News

The Big Take
June 24, 2025


European officials tracking the ramp up of Vladimir Putin’s military are wrestling with a threat that would have been scarcely plausible a few years ago: war with Russia.
Russia is churning out artillery shells, drones and missiles at a rate that will soon surpass the needs of its troops in Ukraine. The US and Israel’s attack on Iran, a Kremlin ally, has dealt another blow to global stability. And Putin is sounding emboldened.

As he signals de-escalation following Tehran’s limited retaliation, Trump is expected to reaffirm the US commitment to NATO’s mutual-defense clause at a summit in The Hague beginning Tuesday, at least according to a draft statement from NATO allies ahead of the meeting. Trump administration officials have also said repeatedly that they’d defend every inch of its territory.

But regardless of what Trump says, European leaders aren’t convinced they can bank on his commitments — at the Group of Seven summit in Canada this month, he asked why Russia wasn’t attending.

Zitat:A war on NATO territory remains unlikely — not least because Russia doesn’t, for now, have the capacity and probably would not want a war on two fronts. But some Russian generals and senior officials have said publicly that their imperial ambitions don’t end with Ukraine and Putin himself laid claim to at least the whole of Ukraine last week.

“I consider Russians and Ukrainians as one people, and in this sense all of Ukraine is ours,” Putin said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. “We have a saying, or parable — wherever the Russian soldier treads is ours.”

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte suggested that Russia may be in a position to consider such an attack on the alliance within five years, echoing the assessments of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and several European intelligence agencies. The warnings come as NATO — under pressure from Trump — pushes members to raise defense spending to the highest levels in decades.

Denmark has said Russia could engage in a local war with a neighboring country within six months and pose a credible threat to one or more NATO countries within two years.

Zitat:In such a scenario, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania on NATO’s northeastern flank would be the most likely flashpoint. The three Baltic nations make up a small fraction of the European economy but strategically, they are critical.

As the only NATO members once directly administered by the Soviet Union, and the home to substantial Russian minority populations, they have a special place in Putin’s distorted historical imagination. They also have long borders with Russia and its satellite, Belarus. Any attack would quickly become a test of US willingness to defend NATO allies against Russia, the cornerstone on which the western alliance was built.
A war, even in its initial phase, would see many people killed and likely trigger a flood of refugees. It would also exact a heavy economic toll.

Bloomberg Economics estimates that the direct cost of destruction in the warzone, higher energy prices as supply from Russia is cut off, and a selloff in financial markets could cut global output by 1.3% or $1.5 trillion in the first year, almost as much as the impact of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The losses would be much greater if the conflict spilled into other European countries.

Zitat:In the light of Russia’s ongoing threat, all three of the Baltic states are already in the process of withdrawing from an international agreement against landmines so that they can be potentially deployed to bolster their defenses. NATO members are planning to ramp up air defenses along the eastern flank.

Of course, as European governments try to persuade their voters to accept massive increases in defense spending, fears of Russian aggression can only help their case. But Russia, for its part, has upgraded its nuclear-weapons base in Kaliningrad, the exclave between Poland and Lithuania, as well as adding bases and military infrastructure along its northwest border with NATO.

Zitat:How An Invasion Might Unfold
An invasion could begin with a staged incident or a hybrid attack of some sort. The Moscow-Kalingingrad rail line, which passes through Vilnius without stopping, is one point of vulnerability — Lithuania police were this month hunting a Russian man who jumped from a moving train as it passed through their territory.

Lithuania’s former foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, has suggested that as a first step Russia could fabricate an excuse for the Moscow-Kaliningrad train to stop inside Lithuania.

Moscow could then send in troops under the guise of protecting stranded Russian citizens, effectively invading Lithuania. It could also launch attacks on Estonia and Latvia, deploy its navy to take control of the Baltic Sea and key islands in it, and sever Baltic states’ land connection with Poland at the Suwalki corridor.

Zitat:...
Trotz westlicher Sanktionen stiegen die Exporte Russlands im vergangenen Jahr um 18 Prozent auf 330 Milliarden US-Dollar. „Putins Kriegskasse bleibt gut gefüllt“, schrieb Simon Gerards Iglesias vom Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft in Köln in einem Bericht im Juni.

Ein Problem, dass die EU nicht kontrollieren kann: dass Länder wie China, Indien, Türkei und Brasilien ihre Importe aus Russland seit Beginn des Krieges stark ausgebaut haben. „China ist mit 130 Milliarden US-Dollar der mit Abstand wichtigste Importeur russischer Waren, gefolgt von Indien, das vor dem Krieg nur an zwölfter Stelle der wichtigsten Handelspartner Russlands stand“, so Iglesias im Juni. „Zum Vergleich: Vor dem Krieg importierte Deutschland Waren im Wert von 27 Milliarden Euro aus Russland. Ohne den Ölpreisdeckel wären diese Einnahmen noch höher. Dies zeigt aber auch, dass die Maßnahmen bislang ihre Wirkung verfehlt haben.“
...

Zitat:„July Storm“: Putin lässt die Ostsee brodeln – Experten prophezeien Eskalation

Zitat:To defend against Russian tanks, Finland and Poland consider restoring wetlands

Finland and Poland are both considering rewetting dried-out peatbogs to form defence barriers against a potential Russian ground invasion. Restoring these natural carbon sinks could also bring significant environmental benefits. [...] Finland recently completed the first stretch of a wall along its 1,340-kilometre frontier with Russia and has been closely monitoring an increase in Russian troop movements on the other side.

This summer, Poland added protective minefields to a 20-kilometre stretch bordering both Russia and Belarus, as part of its sprawling “East Shield” development programme for defence infrastructure. [...]

In Poland, the defence ministry is keen to restore wetlands along the eastern border and talks are under way between scientists and the defence and environment ministries. “Nature is an ally, and we want to use it,” Cezary Tomczyk, a state secretary at Poland’s defence ministry, told Politico. A German peatland thinktank, The Greifswald Mire Centre, in June called for the EU to establish a fund worth up to €500 million to finance planning and rewetting 100,000 hectares of land.

(06.09.2025, 16:37)Schneemann schrieb: Wenn ich mir die bisherigen russischen Operationen so anschaue, dann werden sie wohl auch einfach in diesen Gegenden drauflos fahren, egal ob sie dann steckenbleiben.

Zitat:Russische Drohnen dringen vergangene Woche in den polnischen Luftraum ein. Drei Flugobjekte werden abgeschossen, der Rest stürzt allein zu Boden. Schäden bleiben weitgehend aus. Nur in einem Dorf wird ersten Angaben zufolge ein Haus getroffen. Nun aber erhärtet sich der Verdacht, Polen selbst könnte dafür verantwortlich sein.

In Polen haben etliche russische Drohnen in der vergangenen Woche für Alarm gesorgt - und angeblich für ein stark beschädigtes Wohnhaus in Wyryki nahe Lublin. Inzwischen aber wachsen die Zweifel, ob das Haus tatsächlich von einem russischen Flugobjekt getroffen wurde.

Zitat:Solche Sümpfe würden aber auch unsere GTK stark einschränken

Zitat:Meiner Erfahrung nach waren Leopard 2 und Marder weit besser für ungünstiges Untergrund als was auch immer die DDR hatte