(Vor 10 Stunden)Quintus Fabius schrieb: muck:

Schlussendlich ist es eine einfache Abnutzung. Israel hat eine unbekannte Anzahl Abwehrraketen, der Iran eine unbekannte Anzahl ballistischer Raketen. Beide verbrauchen sich. Die Seite, die zuerst ans Ende ihrer Raketen kommt gewinnt in diesem Teilaspekt.

Zitat:Patricia Marins
@pati_marins64
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Shortage of Defense Missiles Could Leave Israel Defenseless and Force the U.S. to Enter the War

The massive movement of refueling aircraft departing from the U.S. to Europe and the significant activity at nearby American bases, along with the arrival of the Nimitz group, leads me to believe that the U.S. is preparing to attack Iran.

The main reason is not Iran's nuclear program, as Israel already knew it could not destroy it, and neither could the U.S. without a ground operation.

The U.S. involvement would primarily be to stop the missile barrages against Israel, which are rapidly depleting Israel's defense missile stockpiles.

Israel currently has three Arrow 3 batteries and two David's Sling batteries for intercepting ballistic and cruise missiles.

Considering that Iranian barrages over the past 3 days have amounted to more than 400 missiles, and intercept doctrine typically allocates 2 defensive missiles per ballistic and a salvo of 3 per hypersonic missile, followed by another salvo of 2, I would say that Israel has already used around 700-800 missiles from these 2 systems.

Both David's Sling and Arrow 3 became operational in 2017, giving them 7 years of missile production.

Considering further that the U.S. produces about 500 Patriot missiles annually, even with 1,400 batteries and various operators; and MBDA produces about 130 Aster 30 missiles per year, I would say Israel produces no more than 100-150 David's Sling missiles per year, which would provide a stockpile of at most 1,050 missiles over the last 7 years.

As for Arrow 3, I would compare it by saying that up to today, about 800 THAAD missiles have been produced over 17 years to supply the 9 batteries produced so far. That makes me believe that Arrow 3, with only 3 batteries, does not have more than 500-600 missiles in stock, to be optimistic.

Thus, we might say that Israel's two anti-missile systems had about 1,600 missiles before the conflict and may have depleted half of this stock in 3 days.

Even with the U.S. having provided 2 THAAD batteries to the Israelis, this would add at most another 200-300 missiles.

I estimate that Israel has about 900-1,100 interception missiles in stock, which, if revealed, would cause panic, as it is enough for another 4-5 days of protection at the levels of attack used by Iran in recent nights.

The arrival of the Nimitz group rushing from the South China Sea will help bolster Israel's air defense but only for a few more days.

This could be the main reason some barrages have not been intercepted, as seen in some videos made by residents.

Israel is racing against time to prevent Iran from being capable of large-scale launches and will need U.S. help for this. Although GBU-57 bombs cannot destroy nuclear bunkers, they can damage Iranian missile silos, which have already been mapped by drones.

At this point, the Israelis know the risks they face, and the Iranians do not know how long they can continue with the launches, making an agreement advantageous for both parties, although I undoubtedly believe that Israel is in a better position.

(Vor 11 Stunden)KheibarShekan schrieb: Ja, es kann und müsste Teil der Strategie sein,

Zitat:Fear and shock as Israelis question motives behind attack on Iran

Iran's missile attacks are unlike anything Israelis have experienced before, says one Tel Aviv resident
Civilians react as Israeli emergency services arrive at the site of an Iranian missile attack in Ramat Gan in central Israel near Tel Aviv, on 19 June 2025 (AFP)

By Nadav Rapaport in Tel Aviv, Israel
Published date: 20 June 2025 14:48 BST | Last update: 2 hours 17 mins ago

When a missile landed close to his home in Ramat Gan, near Tel Aviv, on Thursday, Omri was miles away, sheltering at his partner's family house in northern Israel.

"Our building is old and has no shelter so we drove to her parents' house, where there's a safe room, but it's frightening every time we leave the house,"[i] Omri told Middle East Eye.

The city of Ramat Gan and other areas near Tel Aviv have been the site of multiple Iranian retaliatory attacks since Israel started its military campaign on Iran a week ago.

On Thursday, Iran launched a barrage of 30 ballistic missiles at Israel, causing extensive damage in the country's centre and south, where a missile struck the Soroka hospital in Beersheba. In Ramat Gan, damage was reported at the Israeli stock exchange building and several nearby offices and residential buildings. More than 200 people were wounded that day, according to local media.

[i]"I'm in a condition that a lot of people can envy. I have a safe room, but I wouldn't want to be in this situation for much longer," Omri said

"I don't think we can stand the current situation much longer."

Another resident of Ramat Gan, whose home was struck by a missile, described the scene as similar to "an apocalypse."

"I hadn't slept at all for several days, so I didn’t wake up when the siren went off," the resident said, speaking to Israeli newspaper Haaretz.

"Just before I reached the safe room, the missile struck, and I was hit in the shoulder by the force of the blast."
...
"I'm not afraid for my own life, but for the people close to me," he told MEE. "A few days ago, a missile hit near my parents' house. The whole area was covered in shattered glass, their window was blown out. It's scary."

"Life here is a nightmare," he continued. "I guess I'll move abroad. This isn't a place to raise children."
...
"The government, the opposition, and the Knesset are steering us toward an uncertain future - and all this while captives remain in Gaza and soldiers continue to be killed."

Zitat:In Israel herrscht staatliche Zensur über Schäden.

Zitat:In 2-4 Wochen hat der Iran die Lufthoheit über Israel...

(Vor 10 Stunden)Quintus Fabius schrieb: muck:
Es geht ja nicht um Flugzeuge, sondern nur darum, ob den Israelis oder den Iranern vorher die Raketen ausgehen.

Schneemann schrieb:Wieso? Also es gibt dunkle, unscharfe, hoch spekulative Gerüchte meinerseits, dass es gegebenenfalls, vielleicht, mutmaßlich stimmen könnte, dass beide Staaten derzeit einen Krieg gegeneinander führen würden. Oder zumindest sich anschicken, aus dem Sumpf der Sticheleien und des Schattenkrieges herauszutreten. Sollte das zutreffen, so ist es die erste Lektion in einem Konflikt, den fog of war aufrecht zu erhalten, um dem Gegner die Wirkung seiner Angriffe nicht oder zumindest nicht direkt zu präsentieren. Dies wurde schon vor 80 Jahren so gehandhabt, als die ersten deutschen V-Waffen auf England niedergingen und es ist einer der grundlegenden Aspekte einer Kriegführung, der sich bis heute nicht großartig geändert hat.

Aber wie gesagt: Nur wenn Staaten auch Krieg gegeneinander führen... Rolleyes

Zitat:Soweit so richtig, aber wenn nichts getroffen wird, oder nur eigene zivile Ziele, dann muss man nichts verstecken.

Zitat:Krieg im Nahen Osten

Wadephul: „Ernsthafte Gespräche“ mit Iran geführt [...]

Deutschland, Frankreich und Großbritannien haben erstmals nach Beginn der israelischen Angriffe auf den Iran mit der Führung in Teheran persönlich verhandelt. Bundesaußenminister Johann Wadephul sprach nach dem Ende des dreistündigen Treffens am Freitag in Genf von „ernsthaften Gesprächen“, die er und seine britischen und französischen Kollegen mit dem iranischen Ressortchef Abbas Araghtschi geführt hätten. Es sei der Eindruck entstanden, „dass die iranische Seite grundsätzlich bereit ist, über alle Fragen weiter zu sprechen“. [...]

Für die Bundesregierung habe dabei Priorität, dass die Sicherheitsinteressen des Staates Israel gewahrt blieben. [...] Frankreichs Außenminister Jean-Noël Barrot sagte, das Treffen könne den Weg ebnen für richtige Verhandlungen mit Iran. Auch der britische Außenminister David Lammy betonte die Notwendigkeit weiterer Gespräche. An dem Treffen nahm auch die EU-Außenbeauftragte Kaja Kallas teil.