Forum-Sicherheitspolitik

Auch in dem Fall (rein theoretisch), dass die Israelis nicht im Iran angegriffen haben, wäre das ganz genau so eine positive Entwicklung und dann bleibt es hoffentlich so.

(21.04.2024, 17:40)Quintus Fabius schrieb: [ -> ]Auch in dem Fall (rein theoretisch), dass die Israelis nicht im Iran angegriffen haben, wäre das ganz genau so eine positive Entwicklung und dann bleibt es hoffentlich so.

Aus Teherans Sicht macht es eigentlich überhaupt gar keinen Sinn, sich ohne Not in einen offenen Krieg hineinziehen zu lassen. Israel könnte ein gesteigertes Interesse daran haben, ein größeres Fass aufzumachen. Brauchen dafür aber zweifelsohne ein politisch-militärische Beteiligung Dritter bzw. streben sie das an. Insbesondere im Kontext der aktuellen Situation. Daher war mir der Angriff auf die iranische Botschaft nebst Tötung hochrangiger Militärs, sowie der iranische Vergeltungsangriff schon jeweils zu hoch gepokert.

Zitat:Israel Allegedly Uses Aero-Ballistic Missiles Against Iran
22 Apr 2024, 08:39 3 mins

Weapon / Missile
Israel Allegedly Uses Aero-Ballistic Missiles Against Iran
The New York Times report that an unknown munition, speculated to be the Rocks aero-ballistic missile, has been employed against Iranian air defence systems. The Drive Editor Tyler Rogoway states that some features of missile wreckage near Iranian S-300 air defence system units match with the new aero-ballistic missile of Israel, Rocks. Aero-ballistic missile is a designation for artillery rockets and ballistic missiles modified specifically for launch from aircraft such as fighters and UCAVs. Unlike air-to-ground missiles with various flight patterns, aero-ballistic missiles follow a strictly ballistic flight path with mid-course and terminal corrections. Thanks to a starting speed and altitude, longer ranges and higher speeds are possible due to launch from aircraft.

https://turdef.com/article/israel-allege...ainst-iran

(23.04.2024, 10:23)Skywalker schrieb: [ -> ]...missile wreckage near Iranian S-300 air defence system units...
https://turdef.com/article/israel-allege...ainst-iran

(23.04.2024, 11:26)KheibarShekan schrieb: [ -> ]

Man hat auf jeden Fall Teile der Booster Sektion im Irak gefunden, glaubst du der Iran hat alle Raketen abgewehrt ?

Der Punkt ist eher, dass der Booster viele hundert Kilometer vor der Anlage in Isfahan im Irak liegt. Dort liegen überhaupt keine Raketenteile und Rogoway hat davon auch nichts geschrieben.

(23.04.2024, 11:59)Skywalker schrieb: [ -> ]Man hat auf jeden Fall Teile der Booster Sektion im Irak gefunden, glaubst du der Iran hat alle Raketen abgewehrt ?

Auf die betreffende Distanz hielte ich es zwar für möglich, dass die betreffenden Jets einen lock-on registriert hatten, aber wohl eher nicht die Raketen.

Ausführliches Interview mit einem israelischen Luftwaffenoffizier über die Nacht des iranischen Angriffs:

'The operation we built worked exactly as planned, I was surprised'
https://www.ynetnews.com/magazine/article/bj2kqk911a

Zitat: “If, for example, a fighter jet locks onto a certain target but in doing so enters the kill zone of the Arrow system, then we ask the Air Control Unit, and they inform the aircraft to 'back off, we're intercepting'. There were quite a few cases like that."

Entweder haben sie mit Arrow auf Marschflugkörper geschossen oder die ballistischen Raketen wie schon vermutet doch mit Kampfjets bekämpft.

(27.04.2024, 22:43)Nightwatch schrieb: [ -> ] Entweder haben sie mit Arrow auf Marschflugkörper geschossen oder die ballistischen Raketen wie schon vermutet doch mit Kampfjets bekämpft.

In welcher Flugphase einer ballistischen Rakete sollte Cpt. Hollywood seinen Kollegen funken, "die übernehme ich"? Das ist Science Fiction.

Kann ich mir auch überhaupt nicht vorstellen. Wie soll das gehen?

Zitat:
Vessel smuggling missiles, personnel for Iran-backed Houthis goes missing: Report

A vessel smuggling foreign experts and military materials for missile production destined for Iran-backed Houthis of Yemen has gone missing in the Red Sea, media reports say.
The vessel, now missing for three days, has triggered a patrol and reconnaissance mission by the Houthis, as reported by UAE-based Al-Ain news website.
"Iranian experts and senior Houthi security leaders participated in a special meeting held in Sanaa to review and discuss a report on the large boat that was lost in the Red Sea," the report said, citing informed sources.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202407151523

Zitat:Could Israel Use Conventionally-Armed Jericho Ballistic Missiles To Strike Iran?
If conventionally-armed Jericho ballistic missiles do indeed exist, they could be brought out of hiding to retaliate against Iran.
Thomas Newdick and Tyler Rogoway

Posted on Apr 16, 2024 6:45 PM EDT

13 minute read

Israeli launch of a Shavit-2 with the Ofek 13 satellite
Shavit-2 launches with the Ofek 13 satellite. Israel Ministry of Defense
Israel is preparing for some kind of retaliation against Iran for the large-scale drone and missile attack it launched over the weekend — and which Israeli and other air defenses were almost entirely successful in countering. At this point, we’re very much in uncharted waters, with this being the first overt Iranian strike directly against Israel and with Tehran now threatening to counter any new Israeli action with an immediate and powerful response of its own. Could Israel reach into its secretive ballistic missile arsenal to enact its counterstrike?


Let’s discuss that possibility.

Israel has a very large array of potential options it could execute in the coming hours and days against Iran. While taking the ‘win’ achieved by Israeli and allied air defenses would be the lowest-risk option and in effect doing nothing more, striking the highest-value targets related to Iran — specifically the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its proxies — outside of Iran itself would perhaps be the least volatile kinetic option. Going after Iranian military capabilities, such as its Navy which is more vulnerable to strikes, is another possibility, although one with greater risk. Striking production and storage facilities related to long-range Iranian weapons in Iran itself would be a more challenging operation and would break the threshold of attacking targets deep inside Iran. Finally, going after Iran’s nuclear program would be the boldest conventional option. Without using extremely high-risk tactics and a more sustained campaign, degrading the program may be possible, but largely eliminating it is not, at least without the help of the United States.

https://www.twz.com/news-features/could-...trike-iran

Zitat:Biden briefed that Iran attack timing and details still unclear, U.S. officials say
Aug.5 2024

President Biden and Vice President Harris were told by their national security team on Monday that it is still unclear when Iran and Hezbollah are likely to launch an attack against Israel and what specifically the attack might entail, three U.S. officials told Axios.

Why it matters: Biden administration officials say they are working to prepare for countering the possible attacks and mobilizing diplomatic pressure on Iran and Hezbollah to try to minimize their retaliation for the assassinations by Israel of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah's top military commander in Beirut.

Driving the news: Secretary of State Antony Blinken told his G7 counterpart on Sunday that Iran and Hezbollah could attack Israel as soon as the next 24-48 hours, Axios reported.

But in the meeting Biden and Harris had with the National Security Council in the White House Situation Room on Monday the assessment was more nuanced, U.S. officials said.
The officials said Biden and Harris were told U.S. intelligence expects a scenario involving two waves of attacks — one from Hezbollah and one from Iran and several of its other proxies.
But it was still unclear to U.S. intelligence who is going to attack first and what kind of attack they are are going to conduct, the officials said.

One U.S. official said intelligence indicates the response by Iran and Hezbollah is still a "work in progress" and both are undecided about what exactly they want to do.
...
Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó called Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz on Monday and told him that Iran informed Hungary earlier on Monday that it is going to attack Israel in response to the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran, according to senior Israeli officials.
...
https://www.axios.com/2024/08/06/iran-at...ed-details

Ägypten gibt nun eine bemerkenswerte Anweisung an Airlines heraus – und verweist auf Ankündigungen aus Iran (zitiert von hier) - wieso Flugverbot über dem Iran, wenn alle auf einen Schlag gegen Israel warten? Morgen wissen wir wohl mehr.

(07.08.2024, 22:00)Kongo Erich schrieb: [ -> ]...] - wieso Flugverbot über dem Iran, wenn alle auf einen Schlag gegen Israel warten?

Weil die iranische Luftabwehr die Neigung hat, Verkehrsflugzeuge unbeteiligter Staaten abzuschiessen.
(https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine-In...s-Flug_752)